As the Federal Open Market Committee prepares to hold a meeting on June 18, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. The market almost universally expects no rate cuts (probability of 99.9%). This 'hold' stance could become a bearish catalyst for Bitcoin—investors are generally cautious, trading volume is low, and technical indicators are sending mixed signals. 📊 Key technical resistance levels to watch: near the $107,500-$108,000 area. A breakthrough at this level could trigger a bullish rebound towards last month's high of over $112,000. Support level: Strong hold around $102,500-$104,000; a drop below this could pull BTC towards $100,000 or lower (around $97,000). Future scenarios: A dovish or merely hold stance could shift market sentiment positively. An unexpected dovish tone or comments could reignite bullish sentiment, pushing BTC above $112,000. Hawkish aftermath: If the Federal Reserve sends cautious signals, BTC may drop towards $102,000 or break through the psychological barrier of $100,000. Increased volatility is expected—Bollinger Bands are widening, and the RSI has retreated from the overbought area (around 42-56), suggesting hesitance before the announcement. Broader market context: U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI) is currently slowing—capping the strength of the dollar and boosting risk assets, including Bitcoin. Meanwhile, oil-driven volatility may spill over into the cryptocurrency space. Historically, surging oil prices typically precede Bitcoin's initial consolidation, followed by a rapid rebound (16-24%) within a week. Summary: What to do next? If you're investing: Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's comments. No rate cuts = cautious stance, potential decline. Dovish leanings = potential rebound. If you're trading: Set entry triggers—buy on a breakout above $108,000, or go long near $102,000 with tight stop-losses. Watch for volatility; implied volatility may surge. Monitor macro signals: The dollar index, inflation data, and oil price news are additional triggering factors. Market impact: Short-term: Increased volatility—Bitcoin may experience two-way gaps post-announcement. Mid-term: A dovish stance could reignite the bull market cycle (target price range of $112,000 to $130,000), while a sustained hawkish stance could keep BTC within range-bound fluctuations or even lead to further declines. Summary: The Federal Reserve meeting on June 18 is a critical turning point for Bitcoin. Whether Bitcoin breaks upward or declines largely depends on market sentiment, not just interest rates. Stay vigilant, manage risks, and prepare for significant volatility.
