The market has suffered an unexpected blow, which may not recover quickly.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has recently broken through key technical support levels, significantly increasing pressure on short-term holders. Currently, SHIB has fallen nearly 3%, trading at around $0.00001187, significantly below the critical technical level of $0.00001231—this level had served multiple times as a rebound springboard in April and May.
Despite several attempts to break through the 50-day and 100-day moving averages (currently converging in the $0.0000138 to $0.0000140 range), all have ended in failure, resulting in a continuous downward shift in price focus, completely falling into a technically bearish range. More concerning is that the 200-day moving average ($0.00001546) has been breached for several weeks, with the trend continuing to weaken.
At the same time, the trading volume during this round of decline has not shown signs of support, and the market lacks substantial buying interest, indicating insufficient confidence among bulls, further increasing the risk of SHIB continuing to decline.
Currently, SHIB's relative strength index (RSI) is at 32.79, approaching the technical 'oversold' range, indicating that there may be some rebound space in the short term. However, in the absence of clear reversal signals, hastily considering it as a 'buy on dips' opportunity still seems rushed. If it cannot quickly and effectively return above $0.0000123, the market is unlikely to reverse its current weak pattern.
Once this level is breached, price momentum may continue downward, pushing SHIB to the critical psychological level around $0.00001000—this is the key support level and the 'last line of defense' before the earlier panic selling began. In the current environment of overall declining risk appetite, meme assets like SHIB are typically among the first to be abandoned by funds.
Unless an unexpected catalyst arises in the short term—such as large-scale token burns, whale accumulation, or favorable ecosystem integrations—SHIB's price is likely to face continued pressure, with a higher possibility of sideways trading or further declines in the short term.
The direct blow to Bitcoin
After experiencing a typical recovery, everyone is focused on Bitcoin (BTC)'s next move. Bitcoin quickly retraced to $105,000 after breaking below the 50-day moving average, having previously dipped to $102,816. Such a strong rebound at a key technical support level indicates active interest from the market in buying on dips, as well as potential algorithmic operations near the moving averages.
This rebound occurred after a large-scale 'liquidation waterfall' that we reported earlier, primarily triggered by a series of unexpected bullish liquidations, swiftly clearing out high-leverage positions. As selling pressure gradually fades, some buying interest has emerged at key support levels, providing a momentum basis for this technical rebound.
However, it is worth noting that the trading volume has not matched the extent of the candlestick rebound. In other words, the market rebound lacks volume support, reflecting that bulls still lack confidence. This also means that the current rise is more likely to be a technical repair rather than the beginning of a trend reversal.
From a technical indicator perspective, the RSI is currently at 53.75, while it is in the neutral to strong range, it is significantly lower than the strong momentum observed when it impacted the high point of $112,000 in early June, indicating weakening upward momentum.
Structurally, $112,000 remains a key psychological resistance level. Without clear positive drivers, it may be challenging to challenge this level again in the short term. On the downside, as long as Bitcoin remains above the 50-day moving average (around $103,000) and does not fall below $102,000, bulls still maintain some control. If the price retreats to the $98,000 range, the 100-day moving average will become the next technical support.
XRP's last chance
Although XRP has held its last line of defense, bulls may need it to trigger a significant reversal. The asset has retreated to the 200-day moving average, which is currently a key turning point for any potential rebound, with the current trading price close to $2.14. Despite a recent pullback in the $2.40-$2.50 range, XRP has not yet shown a significant breakthrough.
Currently, XRP's price is being compressed and organized by multiple key moving averages, with the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) continuously converging, forming a 'high-pressure convergence zone,' suggesting an impending period of high volatility. Although the last few trading days have mainly been dominated by bearish candlesticks, this oscillation and consolidation resemble a 'power accumulation,' likely to become a springboard for subsequent significant market movements. The RSI indicator is currently around 45, indicating that market sentiment has not yet shown a clear inclination towards either bulls or bears.
If bulls can hold the 200-day moving average and stabilize the price above $2.09, there is still hope for a challenge of $2.60 in the short term, or even a retest towards $3. However, bearish pressure is also gradually building, especially as trading volume has been declining for several days, indicating a lack of clear direction in the current market. Once the price breaks below the 200-day moving average accompanied by increasing volume, it may trigger a new wave of selling, with XRP potentially falling back to the $1.85 or lower support zone.
Nevertheless, for investors with a medium to long-term perspective, this time presents a layout opportunity. The current trend bears a strong resemblance to the consolidation structure that XRP experienced before a significant rebound in history. If support holds effectively and a reversal signal with volume cooperation appears, the subsequent potential upward space should not be overlooked. Investors should pay attention to the stability of key support and volume breakout signals to seize possible trend reversal points.
