🌞6.14 Accurate Market Analysis: Is BTC Falling Below 100,000 an Opportunity or a Crisis?

Good morning, brothers! How is the market going? Let's clarify today!

1. Geopolitical Conflicts Escalate, Market Sentiment Wanes

Yesterday, Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, directly taking out the Iranian Commander-in-Chief and bombing nuclear facilities, scientists, and other core resources. Although Iran's population is ten times that of Israel, the technological and military gap is significant, and Iran is being pressed down.

The market reacted immediately, with Bitcoin facing short-term setbacks. Some are asking: Is a bear market coming? Will BTC drop to 80,000?

2. Calmly Look at the Macro, Fundamental Logic Remains Unchanged

Don't let emotions dictate the rhythm. Let's look at a few key signals:

The U.S. CPI is favorable for interest rate cuts, and the Federal Reserve may loosen monetary policy within the year;

BTC continues to flow out of exchanges, with large funds positioning themselves;

Progress in stablecoin legislation, compliance benefits long-term development;

State governments and institutions continue to buy BTC, with clear reserve logic;

The main upward wave of Bitcoin is far from over, and the bull market structure is still intact.

3. Three Situational Simulations (Strategy Suggestions)

We provided three scenario simulations yesterday. Let's review them again with new information:

Escalation of Conflict (Probability 30%)

BTC drops 5%-10%, and altcoins drop even harder. But note, it will drop first and then rise; this wave is a short-term benefit for gold, but BTC won't collapse.

Limited Confrontation (Probability 60%)

BTC rebounds after oscillating, likely breaking through 120,000. The whales will wash positions last. Altcoins will generally recover, and opportunities will arise.

Easing of Tensions (Probability 10%)

The market quickly warms up, and BTC may challenge the 130,000 mark within a week.

4. Conclusion: 100,000 is not the ceiling, but an opportunity!

Currently, the market has a 70% probability of not fully escalating, so don't panic.

✅ If BTC drops below 100,000, it is actually an opportunity for buying low and dollar-cost averaging.

✅ Brothers with bullets can enter in batches; don't go all in, save some for later.

The real big waves in the market are still ahead. What we are doing now is preparing and maintaining patience. It's about who can withstand the volatility and ride the trend.