Saturday Market Review and Trading Strategy (Morning of June 14)
1. Review of Yesterday's Strategy
1. Strategy Review:
• Last night suggested entering a short position near BTC 105,500, targeting 104,700 (actual market: rebounded to 105,900 before falling back, reaching a low near 105,100, short position profited about 800 points).
• Logic Verification: The market conformed to the analysis of "hourly downtrend channel + daily bull-bear watershed resistance," successfully realizing the short position.
2. Key Alerts:
2. Current Market Analysis
1. BTC:
• Daily candlestick closure: Yesterday's spike dipped below 105,000 before quickly rebounding, bulls regained lost ground, but the weekend structure remains primarily a range-bound correction.
• Hourly Highs: Current price is approaching the resistance level of 106,000 again (hourly rebound resistance point + daily bull-bear watershed), focusing on short positions.
2. ETH:
• Correlating with BTC's trend, 2575 dollars is a key hourly resistance level, with support below at 2500 dollars.
3. Today's Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin: Position short near 106000 Target focus around 104000
Ethereum: Position short near 2580 Target focus around 2500
4. Risk Control and Execution Points
1. Stop Loss Strategy:
• Set stop loss for short positions at 0.5%-1% of the entry point (BTC 106,500, ETH 2600), to avoid expanding losses in a one-sided market.
2. Take Profit Strategy:
• BTC target is divided into two phases: first target 104,500 (take profit on 50% of the position), remaining position at breakeven stop loss.
• ETH target 2500, take profit in batches.
3. Position Management:
• Single trade position ≤ 5% of total capital, enter in batches (e.g., BTC in two batches: 106,000 and 105,800), reducing average cost.
5. Key Scenario Responses
1. Resistance Level Fluctuation:
• If prices fluctuate around 106,000 or 2575 repeatedly, be wary of false breakout risks, consider reducing positions or observing.
2. Breakout and Retest:
• If prices break through resistance levels (e.g., BTC 106,500, ETH 2600), immediately stop loss and reverse to go long, targeting previous highs (BTC 108,000, ETH 2650).
3. Weekend Liquidity Risks:
• Market liquidity decreases on weekends, be wary of spike market movements, recommend light positions or pausing trading.
