Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to about $104,600 today, with an intraday fluctuation decline of about 2.6%. This adjustment is mainly influenced by the geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran, leading investor sentiment to shift towards safe-haven assets (such as gold and the US dollar).

Recent market conditions are influenced by both internal and external factors:

1. Macroeconomic and institutional support: The US continues to lean towards easing cryptocurrency regulations, supported by the Trump administration, and has established a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve,' actively exploring the inclusion of Bitcoin as part of its treasury assets, indicating a friendly policy towards cryptocurrency assets from official sources. At the same time, institutional investment is active, with leaders from OKX noting that the market has entered a new bullish phase.

2. Technical and market structure: The price has recently consolidated multiple times in the $103K–$108K range. Technical analysis suggests that if it breaks below the $103K support, it may further test down to $100K; conversely, if it breaks above $107K or $110K, it may retest its previous high of $112K or even higher.

3. Expectations and valuation models: From a medium to long-term perspective, several forecasting models (such as MVRV, on-chain Terminal Price) indicate that Bitcoin has the potential to rise to $200K–$300K, with even more optimistic forecasts suggesting it could reach $1M in the next decade.

4. Challenges of safe-haven asset positioning: Despite being labeled as 'digital gold,' Bitcoin's response during crises still tends to lean towards risk assets, especially showing signs of adjustment pressure amid rising tensions in the Middle East. This is contrary to the trends of traditional safe-haven tools such as gold, presenting a continuous challenge for Bitcoin's positioning.

Overall, Bitcoin's decline today is mainly due to short-term safe-haven selling pressure triggered by geopolitical factors; however, the long-term support structure remains robust, bolstered by multiple positives from institutional backing, market maturity, and valuation models. At the same time, if global panic persists, Bitcoin still faces short-term downside risks. For short-term traders, the current opportunities are mixed: it can be viewed as a window for buying on dips, but they must also be cautious about whether key support holds; for medium to long-term investors, they can continue to focus on systematic allocation and phased entry strategies.