Today's downturn is causing cryptocurrency marketers to worry about the near future of the industry and the possibility of an altcoin season. Amid the hustle and bustle, Cryptex Guy, an analyst, mentioned in a post on X whether we will see an altcoin season again. In this article, we will present the proponent's arguments about the altcoin season, BTC dominance, stablecoins, Ethereum's stance, and more.

BTC Dominance + The Combination of Stablecoins

The chart combining BTC.D + USDT.D + USDC.D shared by the analyst highlights the amount lying outside of altcoins. Historically, when this index approaches the red zone of 74–75%, it is a trigger point for strong bullish moves in altcoins due to rejection from that high resistance level.

Currently at 70.87%, a final push into that zone followed by rejection, as seen in the past, could mean a rotation of capital into altcoins. Notably, a break below the gradually ascending teal trend line will confirm the end of Bitcoin's capital dominance, paving the way for a complete Altseason, similar to the small alt-run we saw in Q4 2024.

BTC Dominance on Lower Time Frames

On the 4H chart, BTC Dominance has broken out of a bullish wedge pattern, a typical bearish pattern for BTC.D. Since altcoins have an inverse correlation with BTC.D, this breakout could lead to a short-term recovery for altcoins.

Now, BTC.D seems to be retesting the upper boundary of the wedge. If this retest is rejected, we can expect a quick bullish candle of 5–10% on strong altcoins. This aligns with Ethereum's recent price surge above $1000, which injected $138 billion into the altcoin ecosystem.

Ethereum's Retest and the Larger Altseason Picture

On higher time frames, Ethereum has regained a significant multi-year trend line known as the Bull-Bear boundary. A successful reclaim will boost investor confidence and may drive continuous capital flow into altcoins.

The altcoin market is also forming a bullish structure. If this pattern holds, it will set the stage for Altseason 2025, with many altcoins potentially increasing 2–3 times from current levels. This scenario reflects patterns from 2023 and 2024, when capital rotation into altcoins led to a general price increase across the market.