The newly released XRP/BTC chart on June 12 by a market technical expert known as Dr. Cat has sparked new controversy for one of the most stubborn trading pairs in cryptocurrency. The analyst, posting on X, argues that despite a sharp decline over six weeks, conditions still favor an eventual breakthrough for XRP, leaving Bitcoin trailing. He assigns this scenario a formidable probability of 70 percent.
XRP versus Bitcoin: 70% chance of a breakthrough, but when?
The thesis focus of Dr. Cat is the level of 2,041 satoshi, where three separate Ichimoku time frames—monthly, two months, and three months—intersect. "The price continuously erodes support after support with no response from the bulls as if support does not exist," he admits, but he emphasizes that this specific threshold is the "most critical support."
The candle on the attached one-month chart is currently hovering just below this line; he warns that a decisive monthly close below this line would completely reverse the three-day structure downward and disperse this currency pair into unpredictable and potentially chaotic ranges.
Nonetheless, this strategist asserts that history is on the side of XRP bulls. "The price has undergone several years of very good performance and is rising with lower levels for this attack currently," he writes, viewing the past twelve quarters as an accumulation phase that has never relinquished its series of higher macro lows.
He believes that this consolidation will allow XRP to make at least one "small attack ... in August" towards the 3,000 satoshi region - a price increase of about 45 percent from the current level - and could trigger a "much larger attack" as the broader market cycle matures.
Optimism is not without conditions. Dr. Cat calculates a 30 percent chance of a complete failure if 2,041 sats does not hold on a monthly closing basis. Under that bearish branch, the crossover could drop to 1,800 - 1,900 sats, struggling for a weak recovery or continuing to "bleed slowly down to the bottom of the range where it started the monster move." In such a failure, he would not expect the "monster bullish move" that has long been anticipated until at least Q4 2025.
Thus, currently, the market is dependent on a single number. Holding above 2,041 and Dr. Cat sees a clear potential to outperform Bitcoin—first modestly, then significantly.
Slide down below it, and the path will dissolve into what he bluntly calls an "unpredictable/volatile" void. Nevertheless, XRP traders now know exactly where the pivot point of the cycle lies and how thin the margin of error has become.