Following the geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran, the trends of the "whales" (large investors and institutions) are showing clear strategies across major markets:
🪙 Gold 🟨
- The prevailing tactic: offensive buying
- Whales increase long positions through:
- Gold futures (COMEX).
- ETFs (such as GLD).
Motive: Hedge against inflation and currency collapse.
- Key indicator:
Large contract volume (>250 futures contracts) increases by 30-50% during geopolitical crises.
Oil
Whale Strategy: Playing on Volatility
- Buy futures when key levels are broken (e.g. $90 for Brent).
Covered calls are sold to producers at extreme highs to secure profits.
⚠️Warning:
Some whales take short positions if signs of a diplomatic solution appear.
Cryptocurrencies
- Whale trends:
- Focus on Bitcoin:
- Buy at $60,000-62,000 levels (strong support).
- Use perpetual swaps with low leverage (3-5x).
- Evading Altcoins:
Minimize exposure to small currencies (except digital gold like PAXG).
- Important indicator:
Bitcoin OTC (Over-The-Counter) trading increased by 40% during the crisis.
💸Traditional currencies💸💶
Whale strategies:
- Buy US Dollar (#USDT🔥🔥🔥 ) and Swiss Franc (#CHF ):
Traditional safe havens.
- Currencies at risk:
Turkish Lira (TRY).
- African currencies linked to oil (such as the Nigerian naira).
🐋Whale tools to hedging risks 🛡️
1. Gold Options:
- Buying call options for gold.
- Selling put options on the Nasdaq index (hedging against a stock decline).
2. Oil futures contracts:
- Long positions with Stop-Loss orders below $85 for Brent.
3. Dollar-denominated #BTC contracts:
- To avoid the collapse of local currencies.
🔴🤑How do you track whale movements?
- Gold/Oil:
COT (Commitments of Traders) reports from the NYMEX exchange.
- Cryptocurrencies:
- Platforms like Glassnode (monitoring wallets > 10,000 BTC).
- Centralized exchange flows (Coinbase Pro Binance# Whale Alert).
- Traditional currencies:
Central bank data (official gold purchases) + #DXY index.
🔴 📊 Conclusion:
> - Whales🐋 are preparing for a bull run in gold and oil with strong hedging against escalation.
> - Cryptocurrencies: used as a secondary haven after gold.
> - Main risks: sudden withdrawal of whales if the crisis subsides (acceleration in profit-taking).
> ⚠️ ⚠️⚠️⚠️Trading Tip:
> - Track the volume of large contracts (Block Trades) via the Bloomberg Terminal platform.
> - Avoid opposite whale positions in gold and oil until the geopolitical situation stabilizes.