The spring is compressed to the limit, but this time it may first break a screw—XRP is at risk of a trend reversal in the short term!
News: Negative undercurrents are stirring
'Unlock Bomb' Hanging: Ripple has unlocked another 1 billion XRP (worth about 2.2 billion dollars) this month. Although some have been re-locked, market concerns about 'selling pressure' have intensified. It's like suddenly pouring water into a pool, the water level (price) may be diluted.
Regulatory 'Counterattack': Although the SEC lawsuit has been temporarily halted, the new chairman's background is complex, and the Trump administration's policy swings make institutional funds hesitant to enter the market. XRP feels like dancing on a tightrope; any negative news could lead to a hammering.
ETF 'wishful thinking' cannot satisfy hunger: BlackRock is reported to be laying out an XRP ETF, but the approval probability is only 80%, and it will take time for funds to enter. Distant water cannot quench immediate thirst; short-term benefits are more like a 'smoke bomb.'
Technical Analysis: Bears have drawn their knives
Bollinger Bands 'suffocating': The 4-hour chart channel has narrowed to 2.05-2.47, the price is sticking to the upper edge but cannot break through, like a fist building up strength but unable to strike. The MACD death cross is beginning to show; although the green bars are weak, the bears have sounded the horn.
Key Level Lost: The current price is 2.13, which has fallen below the 100-day moving average support of 2.27 dollars. If it breaks 2.05, it may trigger panic selling, heading straight for 1.9 or even 1.6 dollars.
Volume 'exposing weakness': During the rebound, trading volume has shrunk, indicating low willingness for funds to follow the rise, like shouting 'charge' but no one moves, making it easy to be caught by bears.
Operation Summary
Short Logic: The news of 'unlocking + regulation' is suppressing, technical analysis shows a breakdown + death cross, 2.05 has become the life and death line for bulls and bears; if it breaks down, light positions can be tried for shorting with a target of 1.9.
Reversal Signal: Unless there is a substantial breakout above 2.47 and it holds, don't trust the 'false breakout' and beware of the trap to lure buyers.
Stop Loss Discipline: The current price is volatile, set the stop loss at 2.15, don't hold onto positions!
Is this spring of XRP 'charging to fly' or 'snapping and crashing'? Still troubled by the price points? Follow the professional support team of Big D for precise analysis of strategies.
