As the fireworks of news fade, the cold front of technical aspects is quietly approaching—after PEPE's carnival, beware of becoming the bag holder!

News aspect: Good news has been exhausted, risks emerging

  1. Payment scenarios landing ≠ long-term support: Bitnile Casino has announced acceptance of PEPE payments, but the actual demand increase is limited, unable to hedge against market selling pressure. Moreover, the tightening trend of regulation on crypto payments remains unchanged (for example, the cooling of U.S. CPI data suggests a policy shift), posing high medium to long-term policy risks.

  2. Whale currents stirring: On-chain data shows that at the end of May, a whale transferred 11.75 trillion PEPE (about $27.9 million) to an unknown wallet, suspected to be a high-level sell-off; meanwhile, the number of holders surged to 438,000, but the proportion of medium to long-term holders decreased, indicating a risk of retail investors taking over.

  3. Meme sector collectively weak: The social heat of major meme coins like DOGE and SHIB has plummeted (DOGE mention volume dropped by 90%), with serious capital diversion. PEPE's solo advance lacks sector support, making it difficult for the rebound to sustain.

Technical aspect: Death cross pressing down, critical position in danger

  • MACD death cross + volume divergence: The MACD histogram on the 4-hour chart continues to expand below zero, with the fast and slow lines crossing downwards, increasing the downward momentum. Recently, trading volume has decreased from a peak of 1.5 billion to 1.05 billion, showing a clear divergence between volume and price.

  • Bollinger Bands opening downward: Prices continue to be pressured at the mid-band (about $0.000012), and the lower band support has shifted down to $0.0000095. If it breaks below the current oscillation bottom of $0.00001037, it will trigger stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline.

  • Heavy resistance: The previous high of $0.00001512 forms strong pressure, and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of $0.0000116 becomes a dividing line between bulls and bears, making it difficult for the rebound to break through.

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