I. Entry (2017-2018): The Tuition of Frenzy
'In a bull market, everyone is a stock god; in a bear market, you realize you're swimming naked.'
In 2017, I was attracted by the wealth creation myth of Bitcoin rising from $1,000 to $20,000 and went all in with all my savings. As a result, it plummeted 80% in 2018; ETH dropped from $1,400 to $80, and EOS fell from $22 to $1.
Lessons:
Don't use leverage to chase the highs; the 'liquidation SMS' from exchanges hurts more than breakup texts.
At the end of a bull market, 'hundred-fold coins' are often scams; I once spent $50,000 on 'air projects' during the ICO craze.
II. Cultivation (2019-2020): Monetizing Cognition
The bear market is the best teacher. I started studying white paper technologies (though I don't understand 90% of it), but learned to read on-chain data:
Large transfer alert (Whale Alert)
Net inflow to exchanges (panic selling signal)
Gas fee spikes often signal a trend reversal
During the crash on March 12, 2020, I went against the trend and bought BTC (average price $3,800) using USDC, only because I found that the miner shutdown price formed a hard bottom at $3,000-$3,500.
III. Magical Reality (2021-2022): Absurdity and Opportunity
I personally witnessed Dogecoin surge 100 times due to Musk's promotion but stood guard at the peak of $0.7
Participated in Axie Infinity chain game to earn, after making $20,000 a month遭遇Ronin bridge被盗6亿
On the eve of Luna's collapse, the 20% annualized return of Anchor Protocol was the bait for a death spiral
Survival Law:
The early benefits of new public chain narratives (Solana/Avalanche) end when TVL breaks $1 billion
NFT speculation cycle = 3 months, most of those who took over Bored Ape are paper hands
Signs of CEX collapse: withdrawal delays, Twitter debunking rumors, founder suddenly goes live
IV. Present (2023-2024): Dark Forest Law
Register shell companies to operate OTC, avoiding bank risk control
Use cold wallets + multi-signature to manage assets, store private keys in 3 countries
Only trade BTC/ETH spot, contracts are only for hedging
Pay attention to the progress of Hong Kong licenses, but remember 'compliance ≠ safety' (FTX had a Bahamas license)
V. Bloody and Tearful Advice for Newcomers
Position management:
5% position to bet on Alpha (new coins/airdrops)
20% allocation to BTC/ETH
75% stablecoins earn interest (but avoid algorithmic stablecoins like Terra)
Information Warfare:
Block all 'signal groups' and focus on Glassnode and Santiment data
Use Nansen to track smart money addresses
Psychological Construction:
Set a stop-loss line (mine is -30%)
Withdraw principal first after profit, roll profits into a snowball
Remember: 90% of projects do not survive beyond 4 years
VI. Ultimate Insights
Having seen too many myths of getting rich shattered in 8 years:
The contract king collapsed and jumped off a building on May 19, 2021
The mining farm owner ran away after electricity prices surged in 2022
I relied on the dumb method of 'holding coins in a bear market, cashing out in a bull market,' and ended up outperforming 99% of DeFi farmers annually.
There is no holy grail in the crypto world, only survivor bias. I still look at K-lines every day, but I often recall that sentence in Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper: 'If you don't believe, I don't have time to convince you.'