The Middle East conflict has resumed + Trump's birthday military parade / Nationwide protests, what will happen to BTC?
BTC trend analysis + potential altcoin trends
Currently, there are two possible trends for BTC: one is a direct V rebound, not breaking the previous low of 103000 to form a W bottom and rebound to a new high; however, given the current situation in the Middle East, it is difficult to end in the short term, with a risk of escalation at any time, making the probability of a V rebound low;
The second trend is more in line with patterns and circumstances:
BTC has formed a double top structure with a continuous 3-day pullback on the daily chart, and it is highly likely that it will undergo a large 3-wave pullback, similar to previous pullbacks after new highs, before reaching a new high divergence;
BTC fell sharply this morning due to the Middle East conflict, but the extent is still limited. The 3-wave daily pullback has not formed, and it needs to break the previous low of 100300 from the 1-wave. It is highly likely to break the psychological barrier of 100,000, causing panic selling and clearing long positions, followed by a rapid recovery to entice longs and clear shorts, with the main force distributing chips in the oscillation at the top above 100,000, looking for buyers;
Key opportunity nodes: 1. After breaking the previous low of 100300, look for a bottom-fishing opportunity; 2. After breaking through the previous high of 111900 to reach a new high, look for a short opportunity at the top, with trend pressures above at 112300 and 117000;
It may take a few days in terms of time as the Middle East conflict continues, needing to digest the impact. It is also a trend of the market, with bottom confirmation looking at the daily chart SKDJ golden cross appearing;
On a smaller cycle, the 4-hour chart may show a 3-wave or 5-wave structure: BTC in the 4-hour cycle may go through a downward trend of 3-5 waves. Currently, the 1-wave looks at the low point of 102614.0, and after testing it twice without breaking, it will turn into a 2-wave rebound, with upper pressure in the range of 106000-108000, then turning into a 3-wave breakdown forming at 102614, with specifics being step-by-step;
Tomorrow is Trump's birthday + military parade, BTC may rise slightly and close positive, followed by consolidation;
Regarding altcoins, it may be similar to the period from January 13 to January 20, with BTC having a new high wave in the divergence phase. Except for a small part of mainstream altcoins, most other altcoins may follow the decline rather than the rise. The previous 4-5 months have basically completed their rises, and the whales have mostly exited;
Mainstream coins like UNI, AAVE, Fartcoin, BCH, etc., may follow, so keep an eye on the situation;
