I woke up today and the market was in tears!
But I am a bit excited, because while others are looking at the downside, I am looking at the upside!
Didn't you all notice? There were a ton of positive signals before, yet Bitcoin just wouldn't move; as soon as one negative signal came, it crashed directly. This is not a coincidence, it's a signal of decline. The trend has broken, and the correction is far from over. I've said it before, July and August are the bottom ranges, and altcoins that should be cleared out can be cleared.
From the weekly perspective, MACD is about to form a death cross, and a bearish trend in a larger cycle may be established. The current decline has only just begun, and I will not consider entering spot positions until it breaks below 100,000. Stronger support below is around 92,000.
In fact, Bitcoin has been relatively mild, while small coins like PEPE have already been halved. Fortunately, I repeatedly reminded everyone to clear out and short, and UNI, ZK, and TRUMP have been shorting recently, which feels great!
A couple of days ago I said there would be a big drop, and today the market indeed followed the script. It's not magic, it's the precise judgment of candlesticks + main force + position data. Keep up the rhythm and just do it!
In the past two days, many voices in the market said Ethereum is about to break through. Did this wave of false breakouts trick you? By the way, is the Ethereum Foundation always this accurate? (eating melon emoji)
Since this wave is a false breakout, we need to focus on the support zone below, the range of 2300 to 2380 is where we can consider entering long positions next time.
Altcoins have returned to where they started overnight.
In the past 24 hours, there has been a large-volume drop, indicating that risk assets are accelerating their withdrawal, with funds shifting to mainstream coins or observing from the sidelines. Recent hot topics like MEME, L2 expansion, and AI sectors are experiencing cliff-like sell-offs, and market sentiment is turning cold. If Bitcoin drops below 103,000 and Ethereum below 2,480 in the short term, it will trigger a new round of declines in altcoins.
Currently lacking new funds (such as large injections of stablecoins), panic sentiment has not eased, suggesting maintaining high vigilance, light positions, or even staying out of the market. In the medium term, if the maturity of US Treasury bonds in late June triggers a fund return and ETH stabilizes, some leading L1 and L2 may be pushed by exchanges, likely igniting a short-term rebound.
Altcoins to watch after this wave!
ONDO
#ONDO is the native token of the real-world asset (RWA) platform Ondo Finance, which is currently trying to recover key areas during the market adjustment. WLFI once purchased about 134,000 ONDO for 250,000 USDC, pushing it to breakthrough 2 USD for the first time, reaching a historical high of 2.14 USD. However, market adjustments later caused it to fall to the range of 0.60~0.70 USD in early 2024.
As the market warmed up at the end of April, ONDO returned above 0.85 USD, breaking the long-term downward trend, and rebounded to a high of 1.13 USD in May. After that, the price fell out of the consolidation range, but has been trying to return to that range in the past week, touching 0.92 on Wednesday.
From a technical perspective, ONDO has fallen to the lower edge of the channel and created higher lows. Some analysts believe it is replaying last year's bullish fractal. If the trend continues, the target price may look towards 2.8~3 USD.
FLOW
#FLOW is the native token of the Flow blockchain developed by Dapper Labs, widely used to support decentralized applications and digital assets. However, the recent trend has been weak, with a daily drop of over 6%, falling below the key support of 0.362, currently hovering around 0.349.
Technical indicators show that bearish pressure is still intensifying: RSI has dropped to around 40, MACD remains negative, and the 20-day moving average is forming overhead pressure. If it cannot quickly return above 0.362, FLOW may continue to probe lower, with the next support level at 0.339.
On the short cycle, the 4-hour chart shows a slight rebound at the lower Bollinger Band, currently slightly above the support level of 0.344 USD, but the OBV continues to decline, and buying momentum is weak. If 0.344 is lost, it may trigger a new round of selling; if it can rebound and stabilize above 0.378, it might reverse the short-term weak pattern.
BNB
Regardless of market fluctuations, #BNB always maintains strong performance, firmly staying in the top five cryptocurrencies. It is currently on the verge of breaking through a key technical pattern.
BNB is currently operating within a symmetrical triangle, recently rebounding from support to validate this pattern, showing clear signs of consolidation. If it successfully breaks through the upper resistance, it is expected to challenge the 700–720 area in the short term. From a technical perspective, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are approaching a 'golden cross', and CMF is also showing a bullish divergence, reinforcing bullish expectations.
Although there may be continued consolidation in the short term, once a volume breakout occurs, BNB may start a new upward trend.
DOGE
Dogecoin (#DOGE) has fallen below the 0.618 Fibonacci level (0.178) and is currently testing the 0.786 level (0.158 USD). If it continues to weaken, it may return to the key support level of 0.13, which has triggered significant rebounds multiple times since 2024.
This position once helped DOGE rise over 200%, and if it can hold again, it may start a new round of upward movement, challenging 0.48 or even higher. Some institutions predict that if the momentum continues, long-term targets could reach 1 to 2.9.
However, if 0.13 is lost, DOGE may start a new round of declines, compounded by regulatory issues, Musk's statements, and the situation in the Middle East, making risks non-negligible.
Short-term: A light position can be tried in the range of 0.158–0.178, with a stop loss at 0.15 and a target of 0.21–0.26;
Medium-term layout: 0.13 is a strategic key position, can build positions in batches, targeting above 0.48, dynamically set profit and stop loss to control risk.
Today, the primary market continued to pay attention to yesterday's porcupine $rico, and I would like to remind you of a few points:
1. Many people overlook that a lot of 'big gold' was born around the 12th of each month last year;
2. The porcupine $RICO is a symbol of the M Libertarian Party, combined with Musk and animal narratives, the theme is enough to create FOMO;
3. This is a common window for 'big gold' to rise, just when the market is consolidating.
Fortune favors the bold, while the timid starve; just do it.
Attention: Focus on the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and one-year inflation expectations to be released tonight at 10 PM. This is crucial for predicting the direction of next Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting and can further clarify whether there is a risk of recession in the US economy.
The article ends here! If you are confused in the crypto circle, consider planning and harvesting with me!