⚙️ Current situation
Price: $0.4468
MACD: negative value, downward impulse continues (–0.0220)
RSI (2H): 26.28 — deep oversold zone
Current channel: clear downward channel, price bounced off the lower boundary
Bollinger Bands: lower boundary broken, bounce possible
Ichimoku cloud: above price, trend remains downward
MA 7 / 25 / 99: all above price → pressure from above
Volume levels (VPVR): strong liquidity in the zone $0.51–0.54, above current price → resistance
Parabolic SAR: above price — signal to short
🟩 LONG STRATEGY
📌 Entry conditions:
RSI in oversold
Price tests the lower boundary of the descending channel
Bounce from the support zone $0.4160
✅ Potential entry points:
$0.4450–0.4160 (on bounce with confirmation)
🎯 Take profit targets:
TP1: $0.4583 (local resistance)
TP2: $0.4860 (Bollinger average)
TP3: $0.5150 (MA25 / liquidity zone)
🛡️ Stop:
Below $0.4100 (break of support zone)
🟥 SHORT STRATEGY
📌 Entry conditions:
Market structure — steadily downward
Price bounced off the upper boundary of the channel and went down
MACD and SAR confirm short
Price below all MAs and Ichimoku
✅ Potential entry points:
On the retest of the zone $0.46–0.48 or after consolidating below $0.4160
🎯 Take profit targets:
TP1: $0.4160
TP2: $0.3931 (lower boundary by Fibo and channel)
TP3: $0.3820 (upon acceleration of the decline)
🛡️ Stop:
Above $0.48 or upper boundary of the channel
⚖️ Comparative analysis of probabilities
Indicator/Factor Long Short
RSI ✅ oversold 🔄 possible technical bounce
MACD ❌ bearish ✅ confirms trend
Bollinger Bands ✅ breakdown down → pullback 🔄 entry may be on bounce
Ichimoku + MA ❌ completely bearish ✅ pressure from above
Channel ✅ lower boundary → bounce ✅ downward trend
Volumes 🔄 average, without spikes 🔄 not critical
📌 Conclusion: SHORT SCENARIO MORE LIKELY 🔻
Despite the presence of oversold conditions on the RSI and a possible local bounce, the main market structure, pressure from all MAs, the Ichimoku cloud, and trend dynamics indicate a continuation of the decline.
🧠 Recommendation:
If considering a long, then only a short-term bounce to $0.458–0.48, and only with confirmation of the signal (e.g., reversal pattern on 1H).
Priority: short from $0.46–0.48 on retest, with targets down to $0.416 → $0.393 → $0.382. #IMX
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