Missiles tear through the night sky of the Middle East, U.S. stock index futures collectively 'flash crash'!
01 The Morning of Renewed Warfare
At 8:24 AM Beijing time on June 13, news of Israel's surprise attack on Iran struck like thunder.
Nasdaq futures plummeted 1.5%— Tech stocks became the hardest hit
S&P 500 futures flashed down 1.3%— Energy sector bucked the trend and turned positive
Dow futures plunged 1.1%— Demand for defense stocks surged suddenly
This is the fiercest pre-opening sniper battle of 2025.
02 The Replaying and Variation of Historical Scripts
U.S. stock performance 24 hours after geopolitical conflict market movements
2020: Dow plunged 2.3% after Soleimani's assassination— Decline narrowed
2022: Nasdaq crashed 3.1% after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war— Priced in advance
This time, the Israel-Iran conflict futures fell 1.1%-1.5%— Did not break previous lows
Special signals emerge:
Crude oil futures only rose slightly by 0.8%, gold quickly retreated after hitting $1800, indicating that major funds have not activated a risk-averse mode
03 The Dual Game of Capital's Undercurrents
The actuarial logic behind the panic:
Hedge fund chain traps
The order volume for defense stock ETFs surged by 300%, while short positions in crude oil accounted for 52% of trading volume—Big players are constructing hedge strategies.
Three major observation posts have been set up:
Tehran's reaction thermometer
If the Iranian official statement includes terms like 'nuclear facilities' or 'blockade of the strait', oil prices will initiate a 7% jump process
Wall Street's defenses
J.P. Morgan's trading desk overnight raised cash reserves to $12 billion, and Goldman Sachs' derivatives department frantically sold put options for hedging
Turning point in Beijing time
When U.S. CPI data is released at 20:30 that day, if it shows inflation retreating, it may reverse the impact of the warfare
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