Today I will talk about a summary of my many years of trading experience for free, and I hope it can help everyone! I think it is neither a bull market nor a bear market now, and it is in the middle stage. In the short term, the next few months are more like a bull market, because it is now a downward trend and has not fallen into place, and it may continue to fall. But in the long term, the next 1-2 years are likely to be a bull market, because countries will "print money to save the market", and financial assets will rise when there is more money. Why do you want to figure out the bull market?
Because this directly determines how we operate.
The past two years have been a bull market (rising a lot), and everyone is used to "buying when it falls a little", but in a bear market, it can fall again after falling. When bottom-fishing, you have to calculate how much money you have in your hand, and you can't be stupid once. Don't blindly bottom-fish altcoins, otherwise you may lose all your money.
So how to judge a bull or bear market?
Many people guess the bull and bear market by looking at the price rise and fall, which is correct, but not entirely correct.
A price increase does not mean it is a bull market, and a fall does not necessarily mean it is a bull market.
The bull market requires several conditions:
1. There is so much money that you can't spend it all: Most countries in the world are easing, the money in the market is increasing, and financial assets will rise.
2. Borrow money without interest: The interest rate is super low, even close to zero.
3. The central bank starts the printing press: For example, buying treasury bonds and the like, directly spreading money to the market (quantitative easing +).
The economy is getting better: Everyone has a job, and companies make money, so they dare to invest.
5. The US dollar is worthless: US dollar index + (DXY) falls.
6. The government issues red envelopes: Issuing policies to stimulate the economy.
Among these conditions, the most important is large-scale easing, because it will drive the occurrence of other conditions.
For example, when the United States eases, interest rates are low, there is more money in the market, and the economy gets better.
But what about now? The United States has just started cutting interest rates (that is, the cost of borrowing money has dropped a little), and it has cut three times, for a total of only 1% (100 basis points), and the current interest rate is still 4.5%, which is historically high.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve is still "shrinking its balance sheet+" (taking the money back), which is the opposite of the "easing" required for a bull market.
So now is not a bull market where "there is so much money that you can spend it at will".
So what's the situation now?
Now it's a "half-baked" state.
Some popular things (like US stocks +, Bitcoin +) are炒得火热,涨得快,但根基不稳,跌起来也会比较快.
US stocks are still in a high and volatile trend and may continue to wash out.
In the short term, if the US economy deteriorates (for example, the GDP data is not good), US stocks may continue to fall. For US stocks to rise, it does not depend on stories such as the AI revolution or Trump's rise to power, but on the Federal Reserve + (US Central Bank) easing.
Easing is printing money and cutting interest rates, making it cheaper for everyone to borrow money, and the market can rise only when there is money.
But the Federal Reserve's easing is not casual. It has to wait until the US economy is really bad (recession), or everyone is frightened enough (market panic), and asset prices have fallen to the streets before it will take action to save the market.
Therefore, whether it is US stocks or Bitcoin, the current prices have not fallen to the point of "reflecting the recession", and the Federal Reserve has no reason to ease.
For example, US stocks just fell below the price when Trump won on November 5 and began to "ebb"
Bitcoin is much higher than that time, indicating that the Trump-led capital boom has not completely receded, let alone reflecting the recession. The market may have to fall again. When it falls enough, the Federal Reserve will come to the rescue, and then it can rise. But in the long term, in the next 2-3 years, the Federal Reserve will definitely ease, and US stocks and the crypto market are likely to have a big bull market. When is the most stable time to bottom-fish?
1. Look at the easing signal:
Bank of America can lend more (SLR starts) or the central bank does not collect money (stop shrinking its balance sheet). These are all signs of easing.
If the economy doesn't collapse, I will choose to buy some at that time.
2. Look at the Bitcoin price:
Bitcoin is now fluctuating at 83,000 US dollars.
If it falls to 70,000-75,000, I will choose to buy a little in batches.
70,000 US dollars is a psychological barrier.
If the US economy does not collapse, it may fall to around 70,000.
If it really collapses, it may continue to explore to around 60,000.
Therefore, be sure to control the position well, don't be stupid, and leave some money to add positions at any time.
No one can predict the future, and living is more important than anything else.
3. Look at economic data:
The latest dot plot announced by the Federal Reserve on March 20 is very critical, which will determine how many times interest rates will be cut this year.
In addition, if the data in April shows that the US economy is deteriorating (negative GDP growth), the market may panic, and US stocks and the crypto market may continue to fall. That will be a good opportunity to bottom-fish.
Summary
Now is neither a bull market nor a bear market, but in an intermediate stage.
In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate and wash out in the next few months, which will wash out some unstable chips, which will test everyone's mentality. It is recommended to watch more and move less, just lie down.
But in the long term, the next 1-2 years are likely to be a bull market, because the Federal Reserve will definitely ease greatly.
As long as easing is implemented, most financial assets will rise, and the bull market will come.
As someone who has experienced three rounds of bull and bear markets, let me tell you: The following three points are the things you should not do in the currency circle
1: Don't touch contracts', don't make orders, don't rush to土狗
2: The most important thing is not to buy and sell frequently, chasing the rise and killing the fall*
3: The most important thing is not to put all your coins on one wallet address or exchange, which is more dangerous than playing futures leverage +
Here are some pure dry goods for you. The most important thing to do in the currency circle
Share 5 steps to understand K-line language +, seize the golden signal before the outbreak of the bull market!
Step 1: Look at the size of the K-line entity
As shown in the figure below: According to size, we divide the K-line entity into three types: narrow, medium
The size of the entity is relative, and there is no specific measurement point, because the number of points may be very different when we view it on different time cycles. Here we need to know that:
When the entity part is wide, it indicates that the current strength is strong; when the entity part is narrow, it indicates that the current strength is weak.
When the entity parts of several K-lines facing the same direction become longer and longer, it indicates that the momentum in that direction is increasing; conversely, the momentum in that direction is weakening.
There is also a special situation, that is, when the entity of the K-line suddenly increases compared with the entity of a medium-sized K-line, it indicates an increase in market volatility. The increase in volatility is a powerful auxiliary signal for verifying reversals.
It can be found from the above that when judging the market environment, we need to compare different K-lines. Therefore, the reference object for comparison is very important. In actual combat, we can compare the current K-line with the following reference objects:
The previous K-line, the K-line at the most recent swing point, and the K-line at the previous swing point.
Second step: Look at the length of the shadow line
A longer shadow line usually means that the price once touched a certain price level, but failed to hold these price levels, and there was a relatively large correction, which usually implies that there are more buy or sell orders at the positions touched by the shadow line.
Logically speaking, the appearance of a shadow line often indicates that the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction of the shadow line, that is, the imminent reversal, but in actual combat, it cannot be generalized.
Taking a downward trend as an example, when the price comes to a key support level, the lower shadow line suddenly becomes larger, which means that while volatility increases, strong buying support is found below. If this situation also happens after a trend has lasted for a long time, then a reversal may be imminent.
Conversely, if you encounter an upper shadow line near the resistance, it may be a signal before the fall. The following figure is the trend of the main continuous contract of rebar futures. It can be seen that when the price touched two key resistance positions, a shape with an upper shadow line appeared, and then the price turned down.
But when the price has undergone a long upward trend, and several K-lines with long lower shadow lines appear continuously, the price may choose to move downward instead (at least in the short term).
For example, I pointed out in the market interpretation in October that the price of gold may plummet, and the price of gold did usher in a big negative line as scheduled on October 8, testing the support of $2,600.
Third step: Comparison of entity and shadow line
Taking a negative line as an example, when the closing price is close to about 30% of the top of the K-line, it indicates that the price has been tested below, but then the long side enters the market and pulls the price back up. At this time, it is a bullish signal.
When the closing price is located at 50% of the K-line, it means that the short side still occupies an advantage at this time, but the long side has already entered the market.
When the closing price is below the opening price, and the closing price is within 30% of the bottom of the K-line, it means that the short side is still relatively strong, and it is still dominated by the short side.
When the closing price is below the opening price, but the entity formed by the opening price and the closing price is located in the middle of the K-line, especially when the entity part is relatively short, a doji will be formed, indicating that the market is in a state of hesitation.
Fourth step: Trading volume
Wickoff sorted out the relationship between trading volume and price, and sorted out the following rules:
1. Law of supply and demand: When demand exceeds supply, the price has to rise to meet demand; conversely, when supply exceeds demand, the price falls.
2. Law of cause and effect: A small trading volume will only lead to a small price fluctuation; if the cause is large, then the impact will be large. Conversely.
3. Law of effort and result: Every price fluctuation must have a corresponding reason. If the trading volume does not show a relationship corresponding to the price fluctuation, then there may be other reasons affecting the market.
Combining the above three laws, we discuss the K-line and trading volume together. When the price rises in the form of a large positive line, we also need to see the trading volume increase, which means a large amount of capital entering the market, and the price increase is effective.
But if the price rises with a large positive line, but the trading volume does not increase, but is lower than the average level, then this is a signal worth vigilance: the rise may not be sustainable. At this time, it may be an opportunity for bulls to escape.
So what happens when the K-line shrinks? According to the law of cause and effect, when the K-line becomes smaller, the trading volume should also shrink. But there are always exceptions. The trading volume may also increase while the K-line shrinks. There are usually two explanations for this situation:
Either professional institutions' funds are selling, and the price has come to the end of the upward phase. Even if it is not, it may mean that it is about to enter a consolidation.
The following picture shows the main continuous contract of Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. It can be seen that after a round of price increases, the trading volume suddenly increased to a six-month high at the position shown in the round area, but the price fluctuation range obviously narrowed, and a doji was left, and then the price entered a half-month consolidation trend.
In addition, when the price is about to break through the consolidation range, the funds of professional institutions buy at the top of the range in the form of selling high and buying low from investors in the range, and the trading volume may increase when the K-line shrinks.
Fifth step: Look at the relative trend of the two K-lines
One tree cannot make a forest. After mastering the relevant content of a single K-line, we can start from two K-lines to deduce the possible trend of the third K-line. Whether the trend of the third K-line finally verifies our deduction or negates our deduction, it has great value for our trading.
The reason why we use two K-lines to deduce the trend of the third K-line is closely related to the "market has a trend" in the three major assumptions of technical analysis. In fact, not only technical analysis, but also fundamental analysis uses this assumption to a certain extent. For example, fundamental analysis defines a decline in GDP data for two consecutive quarters as an economic recession.
In technical analysis, when we see two consecutive K-lines moving in one direction, whether these two K-lines are negative lines or positive lines or one yin and one yang, as long as their high and low points are rising, we say that the market is in an upward trend at this time. Conversely, it is a downward trend.
In addition to the direction of the trend, the strength of the trend is also important.
When judging the trend, we should also observe whether the length of the second K-line is larger? How much is the retracement of the second K-line? If the second K-line is longer and the retracement is smaller, then we say that the trend is becoming stronger. If the k-line becomes longer, but the retracement also increases, we say that the trend is weakening.
Of course, not all K-lines are equal. Taking US stocks as an example, although it trades from 9:30 to 16:00, in most cases, the trading volume occurs in the hour before closing, and the trading volume during the lunch break is very low. Therefore, the K-line during the lunch break may be an inactive K-line.
After understanding the trend direction and strength, we add the concept of "testing".
The high and low points of the K-line are natural support and resistance. Taking an upward trend as an example, if K-line 1 is a positive line, K-line 2 tests the low point of 1 after opening, but then rises again and also closes with a positive line. Then, although the high and low points are falling, it may still be a bullish signal.
Conversely, if K-line 1 is a positive line and K-line 2 is a negative line, and K-line 2 fails to test the high point of K-line 1 and finally closes below 50% of the entity part of K-line 1, then even if the high and low points are rising, we must be vigilant: the trend may reverse, or it will slow down.
In addition, the price will also form pregnant lines, engulfing lines and other forms. The former expresses that the market has fallen into indecision and is waiting for a new direction. The latter expresses the amplification of volatility.
Learning in the market
In the five steps above, I introduced the main points of interpreting price behavior from various angles such as the K-line entity, shadow line, and trading volume. Next, let's find a market trend chart and review these main points from the real trend.
I take rebar futures as an example, mainly because the trading volume is easier to find. In the trading of international spot gold, crude oil and other CFD contracts, there is relatively little trading volume data, but we can use the trading volume of domestic gold futures as a reference. Of course, even in the case of missing trading volume, the judgments we make through the K-line itself are also very meaningful.
The trend I selected in the figure above is in a downward trend. In the several elliptical areas I marked, you can see that the price once gradually increased. Except for the first elliptical area, we found that although the high and low points of the price gradually increased, their K-line size is still much smaller compared to the negative lines when they fell earlier, so in most cases, there was no considerable rebound.
But in the rectangular area at the bottom, the situation has changed greatly. The price first formed a pregnant line, and then formed an engulfing line. Here we use the knowledge introduced earlier to introduce this rebound:
First look at the high and low points: K-line 1 continues the previous downward trend, and K-line 2 tests the low point of K-line 1, but does not fall below the low point to form a pregnant line. K-line 3 fluctuates and shrinks, and K-line 4 tests the low point of K-line 3, but returns to above the high point of K-line 3 at the close.
Looking at the volatility again, the length of K-line 4 is obviously larger, almost longer than the longest K-line (including the negative line) in this round of decline, indicating that the volatility is obviously amplified at this time.
Finally, look at the trading volume: The trading volume corresponding to the positive line of K-line 4 is obviously amplified, which is almost the highest level in the past 5 months.
After the above points, we can see that the price has experienced a relatively large rebound, but it is not a reversal. The real reversal should start from the second rectangle and the third rectangle.
In the second rectangle, we look at K-line 2 from 4 angles:
First, look at the length. The length of K-line 2 is obviously magnified, and it is only larger than the negative line in the previous round of the downward wave.
Secondly, look at the shadow line and the entity and their relative positions. The lower shadow line is long, and it appears after the downward wave, implying that the price may reverse. In addition, the entity is small, and the entity closes at 30-40% of the top of the K-line, implying a bullish outlook.
Then look at the test, the price tested the low point of K-line 1 and finally rebounded, and closed above 50% of the entity of K-line 1.
Finally, look at the trading volume, which has further increased and refreshed the trading volume high point in the first rectangular area.
We can use the same logic to interpret the reversal in the third rectangular area:
First look at the length. The length of K-line 2 is obviously magnified. This is the first signal that the reversal may be effective.
Secondly, look at the shadow line and the entity. K-line 2 almost does not have any shadow lines, and is close to a bald head and bare feet shadow line, indicating that the bullish theory has not been completely released. At the same time, compared with K-line 1, the high and low points are gradually rising, which is a signal of an upward trend.
Finally, look at the trading volume, which has obviously increased to a high point in nearly 3 years.
In the currency circle, playing around is actually a contest between retail investors and major shareholders. If you don't have front-line news or first-hand information, you will only be cut off! If you want to deploy together and harvest the major shareholders together, you can come to me!
Welcome like-minded currency people to discuss 心 together
There is a sentence that I very much agree with: the boundary of knowledge determines the boundary of wealth, and people can only earn the wealth within the boundary of their knowledge.
You must have a good mentality when炒币. Don't have high blood pressure when it falls sharply, and don't be too proud when it rises sharply. It is important to take profits.
For people without many resources, being down-to-earth is an unbreakable way to survive. Good luck!
