Step one, we should lay a solid foundation, gradually increasing the capital. Each time we take 100U.
Go for the hot coins, remember to set your take profit and stop loss. If you make money, double it, for example, turning 100 into 200, and then 200 into 400, and so on. But remember, the maximum is three consecutive operations because luck plays a part here; you may win several times in a row, or you might lose in one go. So, take it easy.
Step two, when our capital rolls to about 1100U, we can start using more advanced strategies. At this point, we need to play some tricks, using three strategies together:
Ultra-short orders, using 100U for quick trading at the 15-minute level, run away once you make a profit, it's fast but also risky; you have to choose stable currencies like Bitcoin.
Single strategy, using small positions, for example, 15U, to trade at the 4-hour level, and regularly invest in Bitcoin weekly; accumulated wealth can be substantial.
Third, trend orders, this is our main focus. After finding the market trend, directly enter the market; making big money depends on it. However, it is necessary to have the same market judgment ability and to plan the profit-loss ratio in advance.
Playing contracts in the crypto circle is not gambling; it requires systematic methods, reasonable position management, and strict take profit and stop loss strategies. Using 2,000 yuan to gamble for nearly a million sounds hard, but once you master these skills, make every trade well, the dream of becoming a millionaire can be fully realized!
Friends who have traded currencies know that to profit from trading, one must buy low and sell high.
So how to buy when Bitcoin drops to 10,000 and then hold it until the bull market goes over 150,000?
Some people see this and think it's easy, isn't it just buying and selling? But what seems like a simple strategy has gone through ups and downs, testing human nature to the extreme from beginning to end.
Here is a simulated psychological journey of retail investors:
Doubt: Can Bitcoin really drop to 10,000? I can't think of any black swan event that could push it that low.
Fear: Wow! Bitcoin has dropped to 10,000. Is it going to fall further? Blockchain scams! Don't buy! Conservative: Bitcoin bought at 10,000 is now up to 20,000, double it and cash out, safe profits. Missing out: Sold at 20,000 waiting for a pullback, now it's up to 50,000, no choice but to re-enter. Satisfaction: Bitcoin hit 100,000! It feels like it should peak now, better to withdraw, let the tail-end of the trend be for you all, and make a short position.
Greed: Bitcoin hit 150,000! Short selling leads to liquidation, starting to go long, it will definitely continue to rise! Eternal bull market! Selling the house to invest all in! Bulls can convert quietly and soon the cryptocurrency market starts a new round of big corrections, and those who didn’t run away in time are stuck at the peak.
Throughout the process, Bitcoin's actual increase exceeded 15 times, but many retail investors may only have made a few times, and may even lose their only profits by not escaping at the top in time.
Discussing the difference between long-term and short-term.
1. Long-term trading:
Advantages: It can reduce trading frequency and lower transaction costs; it focuses more on fundamental analysis, suitable for investors who do not have time to monitor the market frequently; generally less affected by short-term market fluctuations.
Disadvantages: It requires a larger capital amount to cope with potential long-term fluctuations; patience is needed to wait for investment results; if the long-term market trend is judged incorrectly, it may lead to significant losses.
2. Short-term trading:
Advantages: Provides more trading opportunities, potentially achieving high returns in a short time; suitable for those who can frequently monitor the market and make quick decisions; can take advantage of short-term market fluctuations to profit.
Disadvantages: Higher transaction costs due to frequent buying and selling; requires high market analysis ability and quick reaction ability; greatly affected by market emotions and short-term news events, thus higher risk.
Here are some considerations to help you decide which trading strategy is more suitable for you:
Time investment: Do you have enough time to monitor the market and engage in frequent trading?
Risk tolerance: How much loss can you accept? Long-term trading may face long-term uncertainty, while short-term trading may face high volatility.
Capital amount: Is your capital amount suitable for the trading strategy you have chosen? Long-term may require larger capital to withstand volatility.
Market knowledge: How well do you understand the market? Can you conduct effective fundamental or technical analysis?
Investment goals: What are your investment goals? Is it for long-term appreciation or short-term profits?
Ultimately, there is no single trading strategy suitable for everyone. Investors should choose the trading method that best suits their situation and continuously learn and adjust their strategies to adapt to market changes while also paying attention to risk management to ensure they do not face excessive financial risks due to a single trading decision.
Actually, it doesn't matter whether you do short-term, medium-term, or long-term trading; what level you choose is not important.
Importantly, what are you good at?
Being able to help you make money is key. And capability is the key to making money.
From what direction should we analyze and layout medium to long-term?
1. Analysis of market trends.
When doing medium to long-term investments in currencies, it is essential to pay attention to the analysis of support and resistance.
When the overall market trend rises and then falls, the highest point reached before the fall becomes the resistance in the market trend.
Next, the market may rise, so the lowest point before the rise is the support level. Therefore, accurately determining support and resistance can facilitate medium to long-term investments.
However, it is important to remember that support and resistance are not fixed numbers; it is better to determine them based on a range, as this can minimize risk to the greatest extent.
2. The types of trends help you judge the appropriate investment timing.
The analysis and judgment of trends are relatively important factors in the investment trading decision-making of medium to long-term currencies.
Generally, there are three types of trends: an upward trend, which gradually rises from a low point; a downward trend, which gradually lowers the high point; and a sideways trend, primarily showing different regions and amplitudes.
Trading in an upward trend is usually easy to profit from; in a downward trend, caution is required. In this case, medium to long-term investment trading should not drag on too long and should be concluded quickly. Sideways trends are difficult to judge; one must have an accurate judgment before proceeding with the trade.
3. Types of channels.
There are mainly two types of channels: upward channels, downward channels, and horizontal channels.
These three types of channels have different roles in medium to long-term investment trading. Investors can make different choices based on different situations.
Investors can also form different channels based on their different needs to help complete the medium to long-term investment trading. Due to the recent volatility of Bitcoin, there have also been many short-term 'profit-making' opportunities in the market.
However, we must be clear that while earning profits, there are also significant risks, just like recently many investors in Bitcoin contracts have faced liquidation.
Because during the process of the market rising, it does not always rise without falling; after rising, a sharp drop is something frequently encountered. Contract trading generally has a 10-point liquidation point. For the recent Bitcoin行情, if you chase high or short sell, it’s easy to face liquidation risks.
Therefore, I have always reminded friends to set stop losses; risk is always the top priority.
Therefore, I feel it is necessary to discuss some basic short-term operational principles that we must follow.
1. Even if the chosen variety fails in 'short-term price speculation', the mind can still effortlessly switch to 'long-term price investment', meaning that the selected short-term variety is something you are very familiar with and believe in its value.
Just like Li Xiaolai holding on to Bitcoin without moving, he became the current Bitcoin billionaire because he knows it like the back of his hand and invested heavily because he understands and is confident.
Because he knows the future trend of its development, he can predict the future of the currency.
2. The key to taking profit and stopping loss is to think in advance about when to 'buy' and 'sell'; the investment strategy should transform 'overcoming greed' into 'guiding greed'. Simply put, it means clearly defining when to sell and when to buy, otherwise, you may miss the right time to exit.
Greed exists in everyone; Feng Chou is one of them. However, greed is human nature, unavoidable but can be guided, so we must learn to channel our greed.
3. Control the investment amount to about one-fifth of the personally disposable investment amount when buying in.
When investing, never put all your money in. Li Xiaolai also said that putting a part of your funds into 'death penalty' means that this money is lost but it does not affect your normal life.
Zhang Sanjiu's viewpoint is that if you have 100,000 yuan, you can take out 20,000 yuan as an investment, which gives you risk resistance capacity.
Think of the 'trigger point' for selling in advance, sell in batches, and strictly implement it.
In a bullish market, sell half after doubling, then sell a third or a quarter for every 50% increase based on your mood. In a bull market, sell a fifth when it hits five times, securing the principal, and for every 50% increase, sell a portion. Short-term price speculation utilizes people's herd mentality, which may lead to pullbacks.
5. Quick entry and exit, follow the trend, take profits when you see them, and do not trade frequently! These points are also significant taboos; of course, the literal meaning is easy to understand, so I won’t explain further.
Many people say that long-term trading is easier to succeed than short-term trading; what is the reason?
It is due to market reasons and also the reasons related to the traders themselves.
From a market perspective, the trend of large cycles tends to be more steadfast; the fundamental aspects of large cycles generally do not suddenly turn. Changes in the fundamentals of large cycles usually have a budding development process that attracts capital, driving the trend. To push the trend of large cycles or change the original trend of large cycles, larger funds are needed.
The short-term small cycle trends are more random; the smaller they are, the more random they become. This is because small cycle trends accommodate small amounts of funds. A wave in the hourly trend could change the original trend with just one data point. Many major institutions can also perform technical feints in small cycles, creating fake breakouts.
Break.
I have previously mentioned to follow the trend, and it is important to understand the three factors of following the trend: First, define what a trend is, generally it is the Dow theory or moving averages, plus trend lines. Second, the level of the trend, there is an hourly trend, and a daily trend. Third, clarify under what circumstances to follow a small level trend and under what circumstances to follow a large level trend. Following the trend does not merely refer to conforming to the definition of a trend, but refers to following the trend of large cycles above the daily level, because this is the direction of large funds, firm and lasting.
For us technical traders, technical analysis shows that the larger the cycle, the more effective it is, while the smaller the cycle, the less effective it becomes. For example, in futures, patterns constructed over more than three months at the daily level, once broken, have a 90% probability of triggering a trend. However, patterns constructed at the hourly level, once broken, do not have such a high probability of triggering a trend, and if looking at minutes, the effectiveness of patterns is even smaller. The turtle system is negatively expected intraday, but positively expected above the daily level. Therefore, learning trading is easier at larger cycles, while it is difficult at smaller cycles.
From the trader's perspective, trading is a very mentally taxing activity. We need to maintain physical health and be energetic to avoid fatigue trading, as fatigue can lead to confusing thoughts and easily trigger betting tendencies.
Controlling risk is the only way to profit from trading; there are two sources of risk: one is misjudging the market, and the other is emotional triggers. Long-term trading has longer time intervals between trades, allowing for sufficient rest and more thorough thinking, which is conducive to clear thinking and emotional control, thus reducing trading risk. Short-term trading is relatively frequent; frequent trading can be extremely mentally exhausting. When we are tired, it is difficult to control emotions, and random ordering and betting tendencies can easily arise.
Most beginners in trading prefer to start learning techniques with short-term trading and often cannot grasp the nuances of trading for a long time. If they switch to long-term trading, it is easier to find the way to trade.
Why do most beginners prefer to start with short-term trading? Apart from human nature, there is actually an implicit issue of capital thresholds. Long-term trading requires a higher capital threshold.
Large funds are suitable for long-term trading; normally, long-term trading will have larger stop losses, which requires relatively light positions. Following the trend with light positions is suitable for large funds, as large funds can completely benefit from a major cycle trend's main wave, earning about 20% in a year is already quite good. However, for small funds, even earning 20% may not be worth trading for most people entering the market. Small funds need to be utilized fully, which will inevitably lead to heavy positions, increased trading frequency, and a consideration to take advantage of both the main wave of a large cycle trend and the adjustment wave, making it suitable for short-term trading. This is also a helpless choice for many newcomers to the market; ironically, the main reasons for losses among newcomers are not learning how to trade, engaging in short-term trading, heavy positions, and frequent trading. However, if one learns to trade, I do not believe that heavy positions and frequent trading are untouchable taboos.
