As an old hand in the crypto market, unknowingly, I've been trading for 10 years, surviving in the crypto market is indeed not easy! I have also been hit hard by market manipulators, experienced many liquidations, and once felt confused, spending countless times hiding in dark corners smoking cigarettes. This is the price of growth!
Today I will talk about a summary of my years of trading experience as a free sharing, hoping to help everyone!
The following are the indicators I often use, I do not look at just one but consider all together!
1. Trend judgment indicators.
Moving Average+(MA).
Definition: A curve formed by calculating the average price over a specified period, commonly using 5-day, 10-day, and 50-day moving averages.
Buy and sell signals:
Golden cross: Short-term moving average crosses above long-term moving average (e.g., MA5>MA20), buy signal.
X death cross: Short-term moving average crosses below long-term moving average, sell signal.
Practical case: BTC opened a main bullish wave after breaking through MA50 in March 2025, surging 58% within a month.
MACD indicator+.
Composition: Composed of DIFF line (fast line), DEA line (slow line), and histogram.
Key signals:
Golden cross: DIFF line crosses above the DEA line (bull market start signal).
X death cross: DIFF line crosses below DEA line (bear market warning signal).
Case: In April 2025, when ETH broke its all-time high, MACD showed a golden cross, subsequently rising over 40% in 7 days.
2. Overbought and oversold indicators.
Relative Strength Index+(RSI)
Definition: 0-100 range volatility, measuring the speed of price changes.
Operating rules:
Oversold zone (RSI>70): Take profits in batches, beware of pullbacks.
Oversold zone (RSI<30): Buy on dips, set up for rebounds.
Case: SOL rebounded 32% within 3 days after RSI fell to 25 in May 2025.
KDJ indicator+.
The three lines consist of: K line (sensitive), D line (medium-term), J line (extreme volatility).
Buy and sell points:
J line bottoming (<0): Short-term buy signal.
J line topping (>100): Cash out risk-averse signal.
In practice: DOGE dropped more than 15% in a single day after multiple overbought J-lines.
3. Volatility indicators.
Bollinger Bands+ (布林带)
Three-line composition: Upper track (resistance), middle track (trend), lower track (support).
Trading strategies:
When the opening expands: Price breaks through the upper track, chasing up (like BTC breaking above 110,000 USD).
X contraction oscillation: Price is close to the middle track, mainly wait and see.
Case: In May 2025, after the Bollinger Bands of APE coin contracted, it exploded with a volatility of 68% within 24 hours.
Average True Range+(ATR)
Function: Quantify market volatility intensity, assist in setting stop losses.
Formula: Stop loss = Opening price ± (1.5 × ATR).
Application: When BTC's daily ATR=1500 USD, the stop loss should be ≥2250 USD.
Fourth: Volume auxiliary indicators.
Volume+ (成交量)
Core principle: Price increases require volume to support, while price decreases with reduced volume indicate a reversal.
Divergence signal:
[Price rises with volume decreasing: Bullish exhaustion, beware of peaks (such as LTC trend in April 2025)
[Price drops with volume increasing: Bearish strength, timely stop loss.
Funding rate arbitrage.
Strategy: Short when funding rates are positive, long when negative, profiting from the rate difference.
Tools: Automated monitoring platforms like XBIT can achieve annualized arbitrage returns of up to 35%.
Five killer combinations.
MA+BOLL dual resonance: When the price simultaneously breaks through MA50 and the upper Bollinger band, heavily buy.
RSI+MACD divergence: New price highs but MACD not at new highs, RSI>80 signal to open shorts.
ATR dynamic stop loss: Adjust the stop loss based on volatility to avoid being washed out.
KDJ ultra-short line sniping: When J line <0, combined with 1-minute K line to go long, take profits at 3%.
Whale address monitoring: Track SmartMoney's on-chain transfers and plan trades in advance.
The six basic principles of position management:
First: Do not operate with full positions, always maintain a certain proportion of spare funds.
Second: Batch buying and selling, reducing risk, averaging costs, and amplifying returns. The advantage of buying in batches down and selling in batches up is that your average price is lower than others, yielding higher profits.
Third: When the market is weak, hold light positions; in bear markets, it’s best not to exceed half a position. In strong markets, moderate heavy positions are acceptable, and in bull markets, the recommended maximum position is 8 layers, with 20% remaining for short-term or spare funds in case of unexpected occurrences.
Fourth: Adjust position according to market changes, appropriately increase or decrease positions.
Fifth: During a sluggish market, you can temporarily hold cash and wait for opportunities.
Sixth: Change positions: Retain strong coins and sell weak ones.
The above six principles apply to both spot and contracts; if you still don't understand, please read it several times to review and learn anew, and you can become a master!
Let’s talk about position management methods, which refer to splitting up operations. This means dividing the invested funds into portions and operating in batches for building positions, adding, or reducing positions. Batch operations can be completed within a day or over a period.
Why do these actions? Because the cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, both rising and falling are highly probable events, and no one can accurately predict short-term price fluctuations. Therefore, it is essential to leave enough funds to cope with unpredictable volatility.
If operations are performed with full positions without sufficient assurance, once the market changes contrary, it will lead to huge losses. Therefore, using batch methods can reduce the risk of full investment, can lower costs, and is the basis for amplifying returns.
Next, let's talk about how to operate in batches: divided into equal portions and non-equal portions.
First: Equal distribution, also known as rectangular trading method, which refers to dividing funds into several equal portions, buying or selling successively, with each transaction using the same proportion of funds, usually in 3 or 4 equal parts. For example, first buy 30%, if it starts to profit, buy another 30%, if there is no profit, do not intervene with new funds for the time being. When the coin's price reaches a certain high point or changes in trend, gradually reduce positions for selling.
Second: Non-equal distribution, referring to conducting transactions with different proportions, such as 1:3:5, 1:2:3:4, 3:2:3, etc.
Shapes generated based on proportions include: diamond, rectangle, hourglass, etc., commonly used is the pyramid trading method+.
Third: Use the same funds and positions but adopt different methods for comparison.
Pyramid: Buy 5 layers at 1000, 3 layers at 1100, 1 layer at 1200, average price 1055.
Inverted pyramid: Buy 1 layer at 1000, 3 layers at 1100, 5 layers at 1200, average price 1144.
Equal portions rectangle: Buy 3 layers at 1000, 3 layers at 1100, 3 layers at 1200, average price 1100.
When the price rises to 1200, profits are: Pyramid 145, inverted pyramid 56, rectangle 100.
If the price drops to 1000, the losses are: pyramid+55, inverted pyramid-144, rectangle-100.
Through comparison, it can be seen that the pyramid type has the least cost, and when the price rises, the profit is greater. When the price falls, the risk is stronger.
The inverted pyramid is exactly the opposite; if the price drops to 1000, the inverted pyramid loses 144. In practice, it is more reasonable to use a regular pyramid for buying and an inverted pyramid for selling.
After a significant drop in coin prices, when there is uncertainty about whether it has reached the bottom, if we buy at this time, we worry about continuing to drop and getting trapped; if we don’t buy, we fear missing out on a potential upward reversal. At this point, we can use the pyramid building method.
For example:
For a certain coin dropping to 10U position, buy 20% of the position, when the price drops to 8U, then enter 30%, at this time the average cost is 8.6U.
If the market continues to drop to 5U, then enter at 40%, the average is 6.5U.
If the price rebounds to 6.5, it means breaking even. If it rebounds to 10U, it means a profit of 3.5U. But if you buy fully at 10U, when the price returns to 10U, you are just breaking even.
In the process of rising prices, the lower the price, the larger the buying position should be, and as the price rises, the position should gradually decrease. This method of buying is known as right-sided position building. This cost is relatively safe; even if the market falls, as long as it does not break the holding cost, there is no need to panic.
This method has a heavier initial position, so the requirements for the first entry are relatively high, requiring a grasp of market fluctuations, suitable for technical players.
Inverted pyramid selling method, which is opposite to the regular pyramid, has a wider upper part and narrows downwards, resembling a funnel. As the price rises, gradually reduce the number of coins held, meaning the quantity of coins sold increases as the price rises. This is about reducing positions or clearing out.
The core of position management is the above points. Once you understand them, I believe that in the future, whether it is spot trading or contract trading, you will have a clear approach.
1. In most cases, Bitcoin is the leader of price movements in the crypto market; Ethereum and strong coins may sometimes deviate from Bitcoin’s influence and show independent trends, while altcoins generally cannot escape Bitcoin's influence.
2. Bitcoin and USDT move inversely; if USDT rises, be cautious of Bitcoin falling; when Bitcoin rises, it’s the right time to buy USDT.
3. Between 0:00-1:00 AM, there is often a spike phenomenon, so domestic crypto friends can try to set a low buy price for their desired coin and a high selling price before going to bed; it might just get executed.
4. Between 6-8 AM is a timing to judge buying or selling, as well as assessing the day's rise or fall. If it has been falling from 0:00 to 6:00, it will likely rise during this period; if it has been rising, it is a selling opportunity; the day is likely to fall.
5. 5 PM is an important time point for rumors in the market. Due to time differences, American crypto friends are waking up and starting to work, which may cause fluctuations in prices. Some significant rises or falls have indeed happened at this time, so pay special attention.
6. In the crypto circle, there is a saying about 'Black Friday', which has seen a few instances of coincidental drops on Fridays, but there are also significant rises or consolidations, not particularly reliable; just pay attention to news.
7. If a currency with a certain trading volume drops, don’t worry, holding patiently will definitely get you back to breakeven, in short, 3-4 days, long up to a month. If you have spare USDT, buy in batches to lower the price. Returning to breakeven will be faster. If you don’t have spare money, just wait, it won’t let you down. Unless you really bought the coin.
8. When trading spot, holding the same coin long-term with fewer trades yields greater returns than frequent trading, it depends on whether you have the patience to hold. I bought Dogecoin at 0.1 and it has multiplied over 20 times till now.
5 steps to teach you how to accurately find support and resistance levels!
An excellent sniper, from receiving the task, you must start to formulate an overall plan.
For example, how to choose a sniping position, understand the habits and behaviors of your target task, what equipment you need, your entry route, your escape route, how to observe the surrounding environment, the camouflages you will use, and patiently wait for the target to enter your shooting range for precise kill! The same goes for an excellent trader; the most important part is to find your sniping position, which means how to accurately find the main support and resistance levels.
1. Five secrets to identifying key levels.
So how can we correctly identify key levels in candlestick charts?
Remember the following 5 conditions.
The more touches, the better.
Has had a strong reaction.
Very clear, easy to see at a glance.
Repeatedly rejected.
Also served as both support and resistance.
The above 5 conditions.
It does not need to meet all conditions to be considered a key level.
But the more conditions are met.
Indicates that the position is stronger and more effective.
Next.
I will gradually break down the above 5 points.
The more touches, the better.
Proving whether a certain price is a key level.
There is a very simple method.
This is the number of touches in the market.
In our daily life.
When you notice a situation repeating itself.
- The first or second time you might think it’s just a coincidence.
But when this happens for the third or fourth time.
Do you feel that this matter is quite suspicious?
It seems that this matter has some purpose, and there is a reason for it to happen.
The same position.
At different times.
The price has been unable to break through this position several times.
Have encountered resistance or support at this position.
We will doubt one thing.
This position is significant for the market.
Does it have special significance?
Is this position a very key position?
Is it this year's high and low?
In summary.
A position that has reacted once or twice to the price line.
It may really just be a coincidence.
But when this thing starts to happen more often.
The probability of it being a key level will be much greater.
Has had a strong reaction.
We know history always repeats itself.
If the price passes a certain position.
If there has not been a strong reaction.
How can we have a reasonable expectation?
Expecting the price to make a significant reflection at the same position again in the future?
The market is actually like humans.
All have memories.
However, we usually only remember some deeply impressed things.
For example.
I will remember that day when BTC dropped 5000 points.
But.
I won't remember that day when ETH rose by 50 points.
Everything is based on a concept.
This is reasonable expectation.
When the market returns to a position that has previously risen or fallen significantly.
We will have a reasonable suspicion that the price will repeat history.
A significant reaction at the same position again.
And that significant reaction represents our profit space.
And within this position.
In fact, many orders have long been deployed by investment institutions.
When the price returns to this key level again.
There will be opportunities to trigger their orders.
As retail investors.
If at this position the views of institutional investors are temporarily aligned.
The price will quickly move in the direction you desire.
Stay away from your stop loss.
Towards your profit target.
As the saying goes.
"Follow the big players, bull markets are everywhere."
This is exactly what I have learned from years of working in finance.
One of the big player mindsets learned.
Very clear, easy to see at a glance.
A good key level.
One condition is that it must be very clear, very specific, and easy to see at a glance.
If one day.
When you open a chart.
You find a position that seems to be a key level.
But it seems not?
You see the price has tried to encounter resistance there.
Or support.
It seems the price has reacted.
But it does not count as a significant reaction.
I advise you to abandon this position immediately!
Immediately! Right now!
Because even if you force yourself to find a reason.
Treat this as a key level.
Actually, your confidence in this position has unconsciously been affected.
Why?
Because when a trading signal truly appears.
You will definitely hesitate.
To a large extent, it will affect your trading decisions.
Even if you really enter the market.
As long as the price line moves slightly in the opposite direction.
You will be very afraid.
Even if there is a strong WeChat account.
Prompted you to make this trade.
You are likely to doubt yourself at this position.
And prematurely abandoned the truly key position.
Causes you to exit early.
Then you have abandoned the original trading plan.
This trade will end in failure.
Then you will not be able to achieve consistency, which is a fundamental principle.
This market is not lacking in trading opportunities.
There are over 200 currency pairs available for trading in the cryptocurrency market.
Also involves different foreign exchange, futures, and securities products.
Never fear that you won't have entry opportunities.
What we fear most is not following our own trading plan.
Entering the market reluctantly due to lack of confidence.
Speaking of which.
Also involves trading psychology.
I will also organize and write some articles on trading psychology.
At that time, I will explain in detail.
Friends interested should remember to scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow.
You will receive a notification immediately.
It can effectively help you avoid losses.
Has previously been rejected many times.
When we chase girls.
The most painful part is not being rejected by the desired object.
But instead, it is frantically rejected by the desired object.
The same reasoning applies to finding key levels.
We need to find the pain points in the market.
We hope to see a certain position.
Repeatedly at different times.
Or continuously being rejected.
This reaction repeats every time.
We will have one more opportunity to enter the market.
Simply put.
You will see the candlesticks produce reactions near this position.
One or several long upper or lower shadows.
The price moves in the opposite direction after each rejection.
It means that the price has expressed its feelings to the market many times.
Has previously risen or dropped significantly.
But it has all been rejected by the market.
Immediately pulled back by the opposing force.
This situation.
Indicates that there is strong power guarding this position.
Whenever this situation occurs.
Especially when the daily price successfully breaks through this area.
We will regard this place as a strong and effective key level.
At the same time, having acted as both support and resistance.
In the trading world.
There are no eternal friends.
There are also no eternal enemies.
We hope to see this situation.
This means that yesterday's support level has become today's resistance level.
Or yesterday's resistance level has turned into today's support level.
Whenever the price breaks through past resistance.
Many times, it will also return to the same position for another bounce.
And at this moment, if the price is rejected.
This represents that yesterday's resistance has turned into today's support.
This situation also represents that this position has a considerable status in the market.
Both the white and black markets will give it face.
Both bulls and bears have once held this position.
Every time we see a certain position.
If it has served as both support and resistance.
We can judge that it is a key level.
High probability it won’t be wrong.
After explaining the 5 conditions for key levels.
Next, I will explain 5 applications.
Many crypto friends will make mistakes.
And some practical tips for everyone.
2. Five common errors in finding key levels and how to avoid them.
Five common errors in finding key levels and how to avoid them.
Too many lines drawn.
Reckless entry.
It’s an area, not a line.
The range is too large.
Long-term charts are more accurate.
Too many lines drawn.
In the application of finding key levels.
The first common mistake.
That is to draw a line for all so-called support or resistance levels seen in the chart.
The more lines you draw.
It does not mean that your trading opportunities will increase.
Does not mean that the money earned will be more.
Because many of the lines you draw are just market noise.
Based on the 5 conditions mentioned earlier.
Many of these are not qualified key levels.
If you arrange the chart like this.
Ultimately, it will only leave us dazzled.
Influencing our trading decisions.
Everyone should know a principle.
The basic points we look at on a chart should keep it simple and clear.
Ensure we can clearly see price action.
If too many things obscure the candlesticks.
Distracting us or causing hesitation.
It is absolutely putting the cart before the horse.
So our focus should only be on the most obvious and important.
And the main support and resistance levels closest to us.
Reckless entry.
The second point is reckless entry.
We use a real trading example.
When we find a key level (as shown in the figure).
We saw last time that the price reacted significantly downward as soon as it touched this position.
The price returns here again.
Never think that the price will go down again.
Enter short immediately.
Doing this is very likely to lead to painful lessons.
As mentioned earlier.
There are no eternal enemies in this world.
Moreover, there are no eternal friends.
Yesterday's resistance level could definitely become today's support level.
Key levels are actually a market balance point.
Both bulls and bears want to break through or hold this position.
So both sides' forces usually engage at this position.
What we need to do is wait for the market's battle results.
Observe the price's reaction to this position.
There is a saying I strongly agree with: The boundary of knowledge determines the boundary of wealth; a person can only earn wealth within the boundary of their knowledge.
Maintaining a good mindset in trading is crucial; don’t let your blood pressure rise during a market crash, and don’t become overly complacent during a rise; securing profits is essential.
For those without many resources, being steady is the unshakable path to survival; good luck!$NXPC $SOLV #加密市场回调 #X平台封号
