Today's ETH Analysis Report! The spring is compressed to the critical point, 2620 becomes the lifeline
The oversold rebound is like licking blood on a knife edge, 2575 is just a smokescreen, 2620 is the dividing line between bulls and bears!
1. The Bull-Bear Game of Key Indicators
Oversold signals and major traps
The current price 2598 is close to the lower Bollinger Band 2550, and the deviation from May 28 has narrowed.
Historical similar scenarios have triggered a 6.2% intraday rebound, but today is different because:
Negative policies ferment: The SEC has postponed the vote on the ETH spot ETF to July, Grayscale has withdrawn its futures ETF application, and regulatory uncertainty suppresses market sentiment;
On-chain selling pressure escalates: Whale address transfers 32,000 ETH to exchanges, concentrating short positions to exert pressure.
The secrets of the bull-bear dark war
Order wall's virtual and real: 2600 has an order of 4200 ETH buy orders, of which 35% are high-frequency robot orders; breaking below 2580 may trigger a wave of order cancellations
Short momentum weakens: The funding rate of -0.0028% indicates an extreme negative value, with a rebound probability of 68%. The shrinking MACD green bars indicate that a wave of short covering is approaching.
2. Major Behavior and Market Validation
The risk of historical repetition
On May 28, ETH fell to the lower Bollinger Band and rebounded by 4.3%, but was met with strong resistance at 2620 and fell sharply to 2450 after three failed attempts to break through. The current major players are placing orders at 2600-2620 to attract bottom fishing, but there are no buy orders above 2620, exposing the intention to lure in buyers and distribute.
3. On-chain Data and Variables
Funding ambush signals: Net inflow of stablecoin exchanges is 29%, but the Deribit options market has accumulated 180 million USD in call option sell orders at 2620-2650, forming invisible selling pressure;
Smart money movements: Addresses marked as 'Smart Money' bought 1250 ETH at 2595, accurately positioning at the support line.
ETH is like a spring compressed to its limit, and a technical rebound is imminent, but negative policies and major players' lure traps conceal hidden dangers. The historical script repeats itself—oversold rebounds are a carnival for retail investors but also a scythe for major players.
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