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The global cryptocurrency market recently plummeted by 5.66%, leaving investors in a fog. Bitcoin's price fell from a high of nearly $109,000 to $104,000, with a drop of 3.6% in 24 hours. Not only Bitcoin, but other mainstream coins like Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and even meme coins like Dogecoin also saw declines ranging from 6% to 15%. What caused this market crash? How will it develop in the future? Here is a concise analysis.

1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Shattered

The Fed's latest signals are the main catalyst for the market downturn. Recent data shows that core CPI (Consumer Price Index) exceeded expectations, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is also rising, making the likelihood of a rate cut in June nearly zero. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) predictive tool, the market believes there is a 97.4% probability that the Fed will not cut rates this month. This news has undermined investor confidence, with the cryptocurrency market bearing the brunt.

2. Bitcoin ETF Fund Outflow

The outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs has also intensified market pressure. Previously, ETFs had been consistently attracting inflows, but on June 12, there was a net outflow of $202 million. Among them, Fidelity's ETF saw an outflow of $197 million, while ARK Invest's ETF had an outflow of over $10 million. In contrast, BlackRock's ETF fund flow remained balanced. This outflow of funds further shook market sentiment.

3. Leverage Trading Liquidations Trigger a Chain Reaction

High-leverage traders become the 'hard-hit zone' of the crash. In the past 24 hours, approximately 247,000 traders were liquidated, totaling up to $1.15 billion. Notably, a $201 million long position liquidation on Binance stands out. If the price of Bitcoin further drops to $95,800, long positions worth about $11.76 billion may face liquidation risks, potentially triggering a more severe sell-off.

4. Technical Indicators Suggest Downward Pressure

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin faced resistance around $106,000 and failed to break through. Although the MACD indicator shows a slight bullish signal, momentum is weakening. If Bitcoin cannot hold the support level of $104,000, it may drop to $102,000 or even $100,000, bringing more market uncertainty.

5. Altcoin Synchronicity Plummets

The altcoin market has also not been spared. Ethereum (ETH) fell over 9.29%, with a price drop to about $2,508; coins like XRP, Solana, and Cardano also experienced significant declines. The altcoin quarterly index dropped to 16, indicating that Bitcoin still dominates the market, with altcoins unlikely to show signs of recovery in the short term.

Summary and Outlook

The recent cryptocurrency market crash was primarily influenced by shattered Fed rate cut expectations, ETF fund outflows, and leverage liquidations. Technical indicators and market sentiment suggest that the market may still face pressure in the short term. Investors need to closely monitor Bitcoin's support level of $104,000 and the Fed's future policy directions. For long-term investors, market volatility may present opportunities for positioning, but careful risk management is necessary to avoid high-leverage operations.