#以色列伊朗冲突

The narrative of safe havens has not yet solidified

Although Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 during the India-Pakistan conflict in 2025, the asset is still in a cognitive battle between "safe haven attributes" and "risk assets." At the beginning of the Middle East conflict (such as the Iranian missile attack in October 2024), the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index plummeted from 61 to 39, indicating that the market was more inclined to view it as a high-risk asset. Compared to the 5000-year value consensus of gold, Bitcoin's 15-year history means its safe haven logic still requires time for validation.

Short-term capital flow shocks

When geopolitical crises erupt, institutional investors often prioritize reducing holdings in high-volatility assets. The Israeli raid on Iran in June 2025 caused Bitcoin to drop 3,000 points in a single day, in stark contrast to gold's 0.8% increase during the same period. This "risk-averse reflex" directs funds towards more liquid traditional safe-haven instruments, such as the US dollar and US Treasury bonds.