$BTC Risk Aversion Narrative Not Yet Solidified

Despite Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 during the India-Pakistan conflict in 2025, the asset remains in the cognitive battle between "safe-haven attributes" and "risk assets." In the early stages of the Middle East conflict (such as the Iranian missile attack in October 2024), Bitcoin's Fear and Greed Index plummeted from 61 to 39, indicating that the market was more inclined to view it as a high-risk asset. Compared to gold's 5,000-year value consensus, Bitcoin's 15-year history means its safe-haven logic still requires time for validation.

Short-Term Capital Flow Shock

When geopolitical crises erupt, institutional investors often prioritize reducing holdings in high-volatility assets. The Israeli raid on Iran in June 2025 led to a single-day drop of 3,000 points for Bitcoin, in stark contrast to gold's 0.8% increase during the same period. This "risk aversion reflex" directs capital towards more liquid traditional safe-haven instruments like the US dollar and US Treasuries.