#trumptraffis

🔍 Key Developments

U.S.–China framework agreement: A tentative trade truce was reached on June 12, 2025. China will ease rare-earth export restrictions, while the U.S. will relax certain tech export bans and visa limits. Despite tariff continuity (including a proposed tariff on copper), inflation remains subdued for now (washingtonpost.com, ft.com).

Impact on inflation: May's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose just 0.1%, and core inflation remains near 2.5%. Tariffs haven’t significantly driven up consumer or wholesale prices yet (marketwatch.com).

Economic growth and fiscal effects: The World Bank and CBO suggest that Trump's tariff measures may nearly halve U.S. GDP growth (from around 2.8% to 1.4%) and reduce the federal deficit (up to $2.8 trillion over a decade), but also risk slower long-term growth and higher inflation (apnews.com).

Market volatility (“TACO” effect): Traders have dubbed Trump’s flip-flopping tariff policy with the acronym TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out"). This unpredictability is boosting volatility on Wall Street (ourmidland.com).

Mixed manufacturing signals:

Some domestic manufacturers are benefiting, with reshoring and hiring upticks (theaustralian.com.au).

Yet overall manufacturing activity is contracting as input costs rise and supply chains are disrupted (politico.com).

🔧 Why It Matters

AreaEffectConsumersSlight relief in prices so far, but long-term risk remains.BusinessesBenefit from local sourcing but face supply chain disruptions and cost pressures.MarketsHeightened volatility due to policy uncertainty.PolicyCourts are already reviewing whether Trump has the authority to enact some of these tariffs (politico.com, vanityfair.com, en.wikipedia.org).

Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into any of these—economic projections, court challenges, or sector-specific impacts.

ft.com

marketwatch.com

wsj.com

vanityfair.com