$BTC
1. Short-term trend (Q3-Q4 2025)
Technical key levels: Current price approximately $105,031, with solid support at the 50-day moving average. If it breaks through the $108,000 resistance level, it may accelerate to $137,000; if it loses the $103,000 support, it may pull back to $92,000.
Seasonal patterns: Historical data shows that June performs close to neutral, but the October-November period is usually a strong upward phase (average increase over 20%), attention is needed for the “September curse” (average decline in September -3.77%).
Policy impact: The Trump administration plans to promote the “National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve”, combined with the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations (which started in June), may boost market sentiment.
2. Mid-term outlook (End of 2025 - 2026)
Halving effect fermentation: After the halving in April 2024, historical patterns show that the 12-18 months period is typically a price peak (like the 2017 and 2021 bull markets). Q4 2025 may welcome an explosive window with a target range of $108,982-$132,000.
Institutional capital inflow: Net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 is expected to exceed $70 billion (only $35 billion in 2024). If the Ethereum ETF is approved, it will further catalyze the market.
Macroeconomic drivers: Easing of China-US trade friction, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risk aversion strengthen Bitcoin's “digital gold” properties.
3. Long-term trend (2026-2027)
Institutionalization and globalization: Sovereign funds (like the Saudi PIF) and corporate treasuries continue to allocate, pushing BTC towards becoming a “reserve asset”. The target price for 2026 is $163,053-$193,650, and in 2027 it may break through $230,000-$280,000.
Technical upgrades: Bitcoin DeFi (like Stacks L2) is expected to lock up over $24 billion, releasing new scenarios for staking returns, enhancing ecological value.
Risk factors: Regulatory games (such as stablecoin legislation), disruptions in the mining machine supply chain, and market liquidity fluctuations may trigger short-term pullbacks.
Key conclusions
Best timing for allocation: If there is a short-term pullback to the $92,000-$95,000 range, it can be seen as a buying opportunity.
