The continuous downtrend has put pressure on PI since mid-May and may finally have come to an end, with a golden cross on the daily MACD reinforcing the short-term price outlook for Pi Coin.
While most altcoins recovered in June, PI continued to slide, signaling a disconnection from the overall market trend.
That prolonged sell-off has caused PI to drop 43% over the past month, becoming the worst-performing coin in the top 100. However, recent bullish momentum may finally have caught up with this coin.
Unstable Fundamentals Cloud Bullish Technical Outlook
Despite the optimistic technical outlook, the future of Pi Coin may depend on the fundamentals of the ecosystem as it stands at a crossroads, according to a post on X by the renowned PI commentator Pi Barter Mall.
In its pessimistic view, Pi Barter Mall notes that the slow development of the ecosystem is the main obstacle to long-term growth.
The fact is that the Pi ecosystem is still struggling with adoption. Its price volatility remains largely speculative, lacking meaningful use cases to sustain long-term growth.
This also opens the door to liquidity issues, with short-term speculative trading increasing deflationary pressure as unlocks continue at an average of $7 million in PI tokens per day.
The market is struggling to absorb the oversupply without an increase in demand to stabilize the price of Pi Coin.
However, there remains an optimistic case. Pi Barter Mall notes that listing on mainstream exchanges, such as the potential launch on Binance, could serve as a major catalyst.
If it can be applied on a large scale, Pi Barter Mall suggests that Pi could reclaim a price level of $1–3 with real utility to encourage HODLing rather than flipping.
Pi Price Analysis: Could the Golden Cross Push Back the Reversal?
Considering the underlying fundamental challenges, the $10 valuation for Pi Coin remains unrealistic, at least until the optimistic scenario of the Pi Barter Mall comes to fruition.
That said, the Pi coin could start to gain price momentum solely based on technical momentum as the recent breakout from the descending wedge in May increases the likelihood of a daily golden cross.
The MACD line is about to cross above the signal line, preparing to turn green for the first time since Consensus 2025 occurred as a sell-the-news event.
Selling pressure seems to have exhausted, with the RSI recovering from a deep bearish zone at 40—a preliminary signal indicating that buying pressure is returning, opening the door for the next bullish run.
If the upward momentum continues, this model suggests that the price of Pi Coin could rise by 40% to $0.8725, in line with the Fibonacci extension level of 0.618.
If the buyers continue to push the price to the $1 level, Pi Coin will face a crucial accumulation zone at the Fibonacci 0.5 level—a potential catalyst for growth.
However, if the golden cross is delayed or fluctuates, the strong support at $0.60 remains a critical level to watch for signs of a reversal.
