Contradictory signals emerge in the market! PPI data hides secrets, interest rate cut expectations heat up
The just-released US PPI data acts like a "contradiction catalyst"—under the surface of a steady year-on-year growth rate, the month-on-month increase unexpectedly fell below expectations. This seemingly bland data conceals three major signals:
Change in policy direction: The PPI performance, which astonishingly aligns with previous predictions by the Cleveland Fed, unexpectedly becomes the "best assist" for the Federal Reserve's easing policy. Latest data from CME shows that the probability of a rate cut in June has soared to 62%, a 15 percentage point increase from the previous day, with expectations for interest rate easing continuing to ferment.
Risk assets stage a "double-edged sword" performance: The three major US stock indices collectively rebound before the market opens, with the panic index VIX falling by 3.2%. However, safe-haven funds are flooding into the gold market, pushing gold prices up by 1.1%, reaching a three-week high. This rare market sentiment split suggests that investors are engaging in a "left hand betting on easing, right hand tightly holding safe-haven assets" precision hedge.
Crypto market faces a critical test: Bitcoin began a technical rebound after the data release, but faces two major "life-and-death lines" in the short term: $108,000 as the first hurdle; a breakthrough could end the hourly downtrend. If it can stabilize above $108,800, it may form a "geopolitical risk hedging shield", laying the foundation for subsequent rises. However, caution is needed; if both attempts fail, geopolitical clouds may once again loom over the market.
Current market's three major contradictory focal points: rising interest cut expectations vs. weakening economic data; US stock rebound momentum vs. gold safe-haven demand; technical recovery vs. geopolitical risk suppression
This data storm is reshaping the market landscape: When easing expectations meet risk aversion, when technical rebounds encounter fundamental pressures, investors need to be more vigilant than ever about the ever-changing market sentiment. Tonight's US stock market opening will be a key litmus test, potentially determining whether this rebound is a fleeting moment or the beginning of a new trend!
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