In recent months, the U.S.-China trade war has caused chaos in global markets. Whether in traditional markets or digital currencies, every type of asset has been on a roller coaster ride. However, these trade tensions are now gradually easing as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping move towards finalizing a trade agreement. Consequently, it has sparked speculation about the upcoming Altcoin Season in 2025.

After a challenging phase marked by reciprocal tariffs and export restrictions, the U.S. and China have agreed to a ceasefire that could help alleviate some of the heaviest economic burdens for both sides. The agreement, the result of high-stakes negotiations in London and Geneva, is awaiting official signing.

It will also establish a framework for China to continue supplying the U.S. with rare earth elements: minerals used in the automotive industry, semiconductors, and technology. The U.S., in turn, has lowered tariffs on Chinese products. Tariffs have been reduced from 145% to 55%, and China has offered to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.

After the agreement was finalized, Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social:

Our agreement with China is complete, pending the final approval of President Xi and myself. All magnets and any necessary rare earth minerals will be provided by China upfront. Similarly, we will provide China with what has been agreed upon, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which is always good with me!). We are receiving a total of 55% tariffs, while China is getting 10%. The relationship is excellent! Thank you for your interest in this matter!

This agreement holds a key position for several reasons. First, it alleviates concerns about a more severe crisis in global supply chains, especially in sectors dependent on rare earth minerals, with China producing 60% of the world's total output and nearly 90% of the processing. Second, it sends the message that both economic superpowers are willing to pull back from the brink and provide some predictability to international trade patterns.

However, not everyone is pleased with this agreement. Most U.S. companies, particularly small and medium-sized businesses, believe that tariffs remain too high and will still be a burden on U.S. consumers and businesses.

Major retailers like Walmart, which import most products from China, have threatened to raise prices. Meanwhile, small business advocacy groups are labeling the new tariff regime as a death sentence for those reliant on imports from China.

However, the agreement has brought some optimism to the international market. For example, the S&P 500 rose slightly as traders rejoiced at the prospect of stabilizing U.S.-China relations and the recovery of essential supply chains.

Not only traditional investors but also cryptocurrency enthusiasts are relieved by this agreement. Investors and analysts are now speculating that this could lead the cryptocurrency market into the next Altcoin Season.

Analyst Looks Toward 2025 Altcoin Season Amid Eased Tariffs

Influencers in the cryptocurrency field have taken to social media to point out the growing sentiment in the digital asset community that the U.S.-China trade agreement could be the catalyst for the start of the Altcoin Season in 2025.

A cryptocurrency trader named 'Vantage Crypto' on X highlighted that June is traditionally the month of Altcoin Season. This trader also discussed historical data and pointed out how previous Altcoin Seasons began in June.

In the past, periods of macroeconomic stability and a rise in risk appetite, often triggered by geopolitical breakthroughs, have been associated with capital rotation in the cryptocurrency market. According to a post by Vantage Crypto, here is a brief analysis:

  • June 15, 2017: Altcoin market capitalization increased 70 times until January 2018.

  • June 15, 2020: Popular alternative cryptocurrencies surged 1,649% after Bitcoin's dominance decreased.

  • June 15, 2021: Altcoin prices rose 194% while Bitcoin prices fell.

As Bitcoin's dominance stagnates or declines, investors will be more willing to achieve better profits in altcoins, leading to sudden price increases and extreme volatility. The Bitcoin backdrop is consolidating, and the broader markets supported by the trade agreement are seen as a favorable environment for such rotation.

Final Thoughts

The breakthrough in trade relations between the U.S. and China along with the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market has created conditions that many expect will witness a booming Altcoin Season in 2025. However, the trade agreement is not the optimal solution, tariffs remain high, and certain industries will still be affected.

However, this is an important cooling-off period that will restore confidence in the global market and, by extension, in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The takeaway for cryptocurrency investors is simple: pay attention to macro headlines, noting any changes in Bitcoin's dominance.

They should prepare to experience the volatility and opportunities that only AltSeason can bring. The stars may be aligning for the next significant rotation in digital assets, which could dominate the rest of 2025 for traders and investors.