Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin price holds around $106,913 but risks wicks below key $100,000 support amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions.
Tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 55%, sparking fears across crypto and traditional markets.
Analysts point to the 2025 yearly open and $100K as critical support, with major liquidity stacked between $111K–$120K.
Bitcoin Faces Key Test Near $100K After Tariff Shock
Bitcoin is consolidating near $106,913, just below its all-time highs, after pulling back in response to an unexpected twist in U.S.-China trade negotiations. The so-called "trade deal" includes 55% tariffs on Chinese imports, up from the previous 30% level — a move that surprised markets despite recent positive inflation data.
According to analysts, this development may now weigh more heavily on short-term price action than the latest CPI report.
Tariff Increase Sparks Market Anxiety Despite Cooling Inflation
Despite CPI coming in below expectations — 2.4% YoY vs. 2.5% forecast — the news of escalating tariffs appears to have dampened investor enthusiasm across both traditional finance (TradFi) and crypto markets.
“Even with a relatively positive economic report... markets were slightly down,” noted Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators.
“A 55% tariff is going to be felt throughout every aspect of the U.S. economy and it isn’t going to feel good.”
$100K and 2025 Yearly Open Mark Critical Support Zones
Analysts are now focusing on two major support levels:
The $100,000 psychological level, which is key for maintaining sentiment.
The 2025 yearly open, a technical line in the sand for bulls, according to Alan.
Alan emphasized that avoiding price wicks below $100K is essential to confirm it as strong support.
“Consolidation above $100K with no wicks below will validate the resistance-to-support (R/S) flip and create long-term structural support,” he said.
Order Book Data Shows Bullish Structure Above $111K
Data from Material Indicators' FireCharts reveals heavy ask-side liquidity building from $111,000 to $120,000, while bid-side liquidity below current prices remains limited. This suggests market makers and whales are still preparing for a breakout — but only if key levels hold.
“I don’t expect the bottom to drop out,” Alan added. “Support tests are healthy.”
Outlook: $100K Must Hold to Sustain the Bull Cycle
Bitcoin’s consolidation below its $112,000 all-time high is not unusual, but the $100K level now serves as a psychological and structural pivot. Failing to hold above it with clean candles (i.e., no wicks) could invite bearish pressure, while holding it could fuel the next leg up.
Bitcoin is navigating a delicate moment as macroeconomic optimism is tempered by geopolitical tension. With the price hovering near $106,913, the $100K zone is now the key battleground. If bulls can defend it convincingly, long-term momentum remains intact. But a breakdown could change the structure of this cycle — and shift sentiment heading into Q3, according to Cointelegraph.
