According to technical analyst Egrag Crypto, XRP may be approaching a critical moment in its market structure.

In a recent post, the analyst identified a recurring signal related to the 21-week EMA and 33-week SMA, which historically tends to precede significant price movements—both upward and downward.

Egrag's framework distinguishes three critical phases marked by colored circles on the XRP chart, each phase reflecting different technical conditions:

  • Purple circle: Indicates the start of each official bullish phase in previous market cycles. This signal always precedes a sustainable price increase.

  • Red circle: Highlights the bearish crossover where the 21 EMA falls below the 33 SMA on the weekly timeframe. Egrag notes that this condition often leads to a flash crash, followed by a short-lived price increase that ultimately fails and confirms the start of a bear market.

  • White circle: Indicates the rare event where the 21 EMA avoids crossing below the 33 SMA. According to Egrag, this pattern has only occurred once in XRP's history and led to a price increase of approximately 1,200%.

The analyst suggests that XRP may be entering a phase similar to the one leading up to the 1,200% breakthrough. However, he warns that the market could still experience a final strong price increase that creates excessive optimism before a reversal. This would align with past behavior where emotionally driven price increases often occur over short periods and do not sustain long-term trends.

Egrag advises investors to be realistic about market behavior. He notes that unless a trader is in a financially safe position, considering profit-taking opportunities may be more prudent than assuming the bullish trend will continue indefinitely.

Price Target Based on Historical Model:

  • A price increase of 1,200% compared to the current price of $2.24 would target an increase to nearly $27.

  • A 600% increase implies a price level of around $13.

  • A 300% increase, equivalent to a quarter of XRP's increase in 2017, would bring the price to around $6.70.

Although the outlook remains speculative, Egrag's analysis provides a structured approach to tracking potential pathways for XRP in the current cycle. The upcoming interaction between key moving averages could determine whether XRP enters a new bullish phase or faces renewed bearish pressure.