After 48 hours of intense discussions in London between China and the United States, the trade war's nuclear button has been temporarily pressed down, but the fuse is still burning. August 10 is the deadline!
Temporary pain relief:
The United States has loosened its grip on rare earth exports.
China has also eased restrictions, allowing Shenzhen rare earth companies to export again.
The most significant move is the drastic reduction in tariffs! The punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China have been cut from 145% to 30%, while China's tariffs on the U.S. have dropped from 125% to 10%. This is definitely a significant concession from both sides!
BUT! A time bomb hangs overhead:
August 10 is the final deadline! If an agreement is not reached before then, all lowered tariffs will “boom” back up, potentially even higher! This isn't an agreement at all; it's just a delayed explosion!
A superficial ceasefire, but stabbing in the dark:
The U.S. is being sly: the ban on chips and aircraft equipment for China remains unchanged, and they boast about the court's support for their 34% “standard” tariff. This is just a stalling tactic; the big stick can come down at any moment!
China isn't backing down either: exports to the U.S. plummeted by 34.5% in May, setting a record, and the trade war is indeed painful. But we have the rare earth card, forcing the U.S. to come back to the negotiating table; this is a strong hand!
The world is terrified:
The World Bank has overnight downgraded next year's global growth forecast to a dismal 2.3%.
ECB President Lagarde urgently shouts: if this continues, the global economy will go straight to ICU!
Countries like the EU, Japan, and Mexico, especially those in the aircraft industry, are begging the U.S. not to “fire”! The market is genuinely scared out of its wits!
Experts' blunt analysis:
This is just a “Syria-style ceasefire” — as fragile as a piece of paper! The deep-rooted contradictions remain unresolved, entirely depending on the leaders' moods; they could turn on each other at any moment. I completely agree; this “peace” is far from reliable!
Market hysteria:
Rare earth stocks are skyrocketing, and related companies in Shenzhen seem to be printing money.
The dollar has inexplicably fallen, revealing the market's underlying panic.
American companies are split: one side shouts “long live the stay of execution,” while the other secretly hoards goods in preparation for an explosion in August! This starkly indicates that no one believes this ceasefire can last!
My ultimate judgment:
Trump’s tariff cannons are already loaded; they’re just waiting to fire on August 10!
Beijing holds the rare earth card, and if pushed too hard, will retaliate.
Are you trapped? When will you buy the dip? Still the same old story, confused and helpless, not knowing what to do, nodding like a comment. I need fans, you need references.
