Is Trump backing down again? "Timid trade" plays with the global market, this US government has messed up!

According to Observer Network, US Treasury Secretary Bessent just let it slip in Congress that Trump is "very likely" to postpone the tariff deadline of July 9.

In the past four months, this president has adjusted tariffs from 10% to 145% and back again, made tough statements to the EU only to backtrack immediately, and even changed tariffs on Canadian aluminum overnight. Wall Street now calls this "timid trade", which translates to: Trump always bluffs, but at the last moment, he drops the ball!

On April 2, he announced global tariff increases, and a week later he was kneeling saying "postponed for 90 days"; in May he brandished a 50% tariff stick at the EU, and a few days later it became "let's talk for another two months", and the most absurd was with China, where the tariff table fluctuated more than stock prices, soaring from 20% to 145%, only for Beijing to release a countermeasure list, after which American farmers and retailers panicked, and the White House immediately lowered the tax rate quietly.

But is Trump really the "deal master" he claims to be? Just look at the data, he claimed he would sign 90 agreements in 90 days, but so far has only managed a temporary memorandum with the UK.

The worst off now is Wall Street. Last week, commodities were still celebrating "US-China reconciliation", but this week they have to crash due to "EU talks breaking down". A hedge fund manager complained to me: "Shorting volatility now? Might as well go to Las Vegas and gamble!" Now American companies, having just moved their production lines to Vietnam, turn around and find tariffs exempted; they gritted their teeth and paid high prices for steel and aluminum for six months, only for policies to suddenly make a U-turn.

In the next three months, we will watch for three signals: if Trump suddenly eases tariffs on EU cars, it means the Republican stronghold can't withstand the pressure; if he loosens tariffs on Chinese technology, it will definitely be because the US stock market is crashing too badly; the worst-case scenario is if Trump really stages a tariff fireworks show on July 9. However, the response strategies of various countries are surprisingly consistent: delay tactics + self-inflicted pain + covert maneuvers.