On June 12, 2025, the global financial markets fell into turmoil under the impact of multiple negative factors. The US stock market and the Bitcoin market both fell sharply in the early hours of the day, with the core reason pointing directly to the sudden tension in the Middle East situation.
Recently, a series of actions by the US government have intensified the regional tension: the US Embassy in Iraq initiated evacuation procedures, the State Department authorized personnel to evacuate from several Middle Eastern countries, and the Department of Defense allowed US military families to voluntarily leave Middle Eastern military bases. Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces entered a state of high alert, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard publicly announced that they have deployed upgraded missiles, creating a tense situation that has put investors on edge. Additionally, President Trump expressed a pessimistic attitude towards the Iranian nuclear negotiations in an interview, stating that he is 'losing confidence,' which further raised market concerns that a breakdown in negotiations could lead to a full-scale conflict between Israel and Iran, causing panic to spread rapidly.
Although the previously released US CPI data for May was lower than market expectations, signaling a positive sign of moderate inflation, the impact of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East is clearly stronger, quickly overshadowing this positive news. It is noteworthy that this market volatility bears similarities to the brief pullback triggered by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Currently, the fear and greed index remains around 61, indicating that investor sentiment has not completely spiraled out of control.
From the performance of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market, the short-term adjustment characteristics are significant: the market turnover rate continues to decline, with some short-term investors choosing to reduce their holdings and exit the market, but the overall impact is limited. Notably, the number of wallets holding more than 0.1 Bitcoin has surpassed 4.4 million, setting a historical high, indicating that retail funds continue to flow in. Analyzing from the price support perspective, the range of $100,500 - $105,000 has accumulated 1.7 million Bitcoins, mainly composed of short-term holders; while the critical price level of $93,000 - $98,000 serves as a 'fortress' for long-term holders, these investors maintain stable holdings. As long as there is no panic selling, the likelihood of a significant drop in Bitcoin's price is low.
The data on capital flows also reflects the cautious sentiment in the market: on-site capital decreased by $200 million, and the market value of stablecoins such as USDT and USDC showed a slight decline. It is worth noting that for the first time this week, there was a net outflow of funds in the Asian market, and the inflow of funds in the US market also showed signs of weakness. Overall, the capital situation is relatively weak, and future trends need to be closely monitored.
In addition, the highly publicized feud between Trump and Musk has finally ended with Musk publicly apologizing and Trump accepting the reconciliation. However, industry insiders point out that the relationship between the two is unlikely to return to its original state, being more tied to political and business interests. Under the mediation of a third party, Musk, concerned about political risks, and Trump, needing to weigh issues like immigration in California, have temporarily maintained a facade of peace.
Reviewing the recent market performance, Trump-related events have become important variables stirring the market, whether it is geopolitical conflicts, trade tariff issues, or the turmoil with Musk, all have triggered significant market fluctuations. However, analysts generally believe that the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market may be relatively short-lived, and whether the Middle Eastern situation will further deteriorate will be key in determining the short-term direction of the market. In the medium to long term, the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve remain the core focus of global investors, making the future market direction full of uncertainties, requiring continuous cautious observation.#BTC走势分析 