An analysis of Bitcoin shows its price is nearing an all-time high as the behavior of long-term holders signals a new market cycle.

  • Long-term holders defy norms by accumulating even as profits hit yearly peaks

  • Spot ETFs drive a new cycle dynamic, reducing traditional sell-off pressure

  • Volatility metrics diverge, hinting at potential sharp moves despite calm derivatives

As Bitcoin consolidates around the $108,400 level, on-chain data reveals a market in transition, where record-high retail optimism is clashing with the “atypical” and deeply convicted behavior of long-term holders. 

This would suggest that historical market patterns are being reshaped by the growing institutional investment sentiment. And while the price has seen a slight daily dip, it remains up over 4% on the week, holding strong after its recent push towards $111,970 all-time high. 

Retail Sentiment Hits 7-Month High

According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, social media sentiment for Bitcoin is overwhelmingly positive; the most optimistic it has been in over seven months. 

Historically, such high levels of retail “fear of missing out” (FOMO) can be a contrarian indicator, often marking local price tops. This time, however, the behavior of more experienced market participants tells a different story

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