$ETH Below is a multifaceted analysis of Ethereum:
Technical Aspects
Ethereum recently completed the Pectra upgrade, bringing significant changes. The account abstraction revolution was achieved through EIP-7702, greatly shortening transaction confirmation times, significantly reducing gas consumption, and making it universally applicable across the chain. The Blob storage upgrade (EIP-7691 + 7623) improved storage efficiency, increased the target number of blobs and data retention periods, reduced storage costs, enhanced data throughput, and decreased Layer 2 transaction delays. The staking system restructuring (EIP-7251 + 7002) improved the validator economic model, increased the staking cap for individual validators, shortened activation delays, optimized the exit mechanism, and reduced the volume of signed messages, hardware costs, and yield volatility for node operators.
Market Aspects
• Price Trends: Ethereum's price has been highly volatile. It broke through $2827 on June 10, reaching a 15-week high, and on June 11, the 50-day moving average officially crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming a golden cross. Some analysts believe that if it stabilizes above $2800 this month, the $4000 mark may be reached before the end of the month. However, it is important to note that the daily RSI reached 72, indicating it is in the overbought range, posing a risk of a pullback.
• Fund Flows: ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of $428 million in one week, marking a new high for the year. At the same time, the DeFi ecosystem's TVL rose to $86.6 billion, with Layer 2 daily transaction volume surpassing 5.4 million transactions. The network's activity indicators hit a peak since 2023, showing a certain level of capital inflow and ecosystem activity.
Ecosystem Aspects
In the second quarter, the number of independent active addresses surged by 70%, reaching a historical high of 16.4 million on June 10, with the Base network accounting for most of the incremental market. However, network fee income plummeted by 90%, and staking annualized returns shrank to 3.12%, facing the issue of ecological value loss.
Risk Aspects
• Regulatory Risk: The SEC's regulatory pressure has led to a continuous net outflow of $369 million in Ethereum spot ETF funds over eight days, and the uncertainty of regulatory policies has impacted its market performance.
• Market Volatility Risk: Ethereum futures open interest has first surpassed the $40 billion mark, exposing the market to significant volatility risks. After reaching a new high in open interest, the probability of a black swan event occurring within three months is 68%.
