. Short-Term Bullish Breakout Likely (Next 8โ12 Hours)
RSI Bounce Setup: BTCโs 14D RSI recently dipped below 30 $BTC which often comes before strong rallies. Current RSI around 41 = still room for upside before hitting overbought.
Bollinger Squeeze: Price consolidation around $109.5Kโ$110.2K, indicating low volatility. A clean break above $110.24K (June 11 high) could drive momentum to $111.8K+ (ATH).
Sentiment Tailwind: Fear & Greed Index at 76 (Greed), backed by $336M net inflows into US BTC ETFs (BlackRock leading) = clear bullish pressure.
2. Key Resistance & Liquidation Zones to Watch
Immediate Resistance: $110.2Kโ$110.5K. Breakout above this cluster likely triggers >$250M in short liquidations = turbo boost for bulls.
ATH Test in Sight: Sustained volume above $110.5K opens path to $111.8K (May 22 ATH), with potential stretch target at $115.1K.
Caution: Heavy long liquidation zone above $110.5K might cause brief pullbacks before continuation.
๐ป 3. Downside Risk Zones
Key Support: $108.37K (June 10 low). Losing this opens door to $107.5K, where ~$420M in long liquidations are at risk.
On-Chain Safety Net: STH cost basis = $97.1K, and 0.85 SSD quantile = $95.6K. Long-term support โ unlikely to be tested unless major macro shock hits.
๐ช 4. Catalysts Iโm Watching Closely
CPI Report (June 11): A hot inflation print = volatility spike. Could boost safe-haven flows into BTC.
Options Market Mispricing: BTC implied volatility is too low given price action. Expect sharp moves. Traders are stacking cheap calls.
ETH Rally Effect: ETH up 4.6% + $124M ETF inflow. If ETH breaks $2,820, it could pull BTC up with it.
๏ฟฝ My Price Projection Summary
TimeframeScenarioProbabilityPrice Range0โ12 HRSBullish Breakout60%$110,200โ$111,81412โ24 HRSSideways Consolidation30%$108,800โ$110,500DownsideBearish CPI Surprise10%$107,500โ$108,800
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Conclusion:
BTC looks primed for a fresh ATH test IF it holds above $109.5K.
๐จ Watch $110.2Kโ$110.5K zone closely โ a breakout here could trigger a momentum wave.
๐ Risk management is key with macro events + options mispricing at play.
๐ก My Strategy Tip:
Iโm keeping a tight stop-loss around $109K on longs.
A 1-hour close above $110.3K wo$BTC uld confirm breakout โ and potemntially kickstart the ATH run.
Donโt sleep on this zone.
๐ Trade smart, stay safe โ $BTC ๐ฐ