š§¾ U.S. CPI Report ā May 2025 (Released JuneāÆ11)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday, JuneāÆ11, 2025, at 8:30āÆa.m. ET:
Headline CPI: +0.1% monthāoverāmonth, a deceleration from Aprilās +0.2%
YoY headline CPI: +2.4%, slightly higher than Aprilās 2.3%, but below the 2.5% forecast
Core CPI (excluding food & energy): +0.1% M/M (forecast was 0.3%) and +2.8% YoY
Key takeaways:
Inflation softened more than expected, signaling limited pass-through from tariffs .
This cooling trend boosts market expectations for a more dovish Fed, likely holding rates steady on June 18 and potentially cutting later this year .
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š Impact on the Stock Market
Stock futures (S&PāÆ500 & Dow) rebounded sharply post-release, rising ~0.4%ā0.8%, while the 10āyear Treasury yield dropped to around 4.45% .
The cooling CPI print, combined with ongoing U.S.āChina trade truce signals, injected renewed optimism into equity markets .
Some strategists caution that markets might still be underestimating potential future inflation from tariffs and wage pressures .
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āæ Crypto Market Reaction
š Immediate Rally
Bitcoin($BTC )
jumped ~0.6% in the minutes after the CPI release, nearing $110,000āthe highest since its mid-May peak .
Ethereum($ETH )
surged 4ā4.6%, closing in on $2,800 .
Altcoins rallied sharplyāwith some seeing gains up to 8%, propelled by renewed investor risk appetite in the wake of dovish signals .
š Longer-Term Dynamics
The unexpectedly soft report renewed confidence that the Fed may shift to a dovish policy later in 2025āsupporting demand for non-yielding assets like crypto .
Institutional flows surged: spot BTC ETF inflows reached roughly $431 million, while ETH ETFs recorded 17 consecutive days of inflows .
On-chain metrics reported spikes in volume and wallet inflows, aligning with a broader risk-on sentiment across markets .
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š§© Market Summary
Asset Class Immediate Reaction Underlying Drivers
Equities Futures +0.4%ā0.8% after CPI release Cooling inflation, dovish Fed expectations, improved trade outlook
Bonds 10āyr yield fell to ~4.45% Softer data reducing pressure on interest rates
Bitcoin($BTC )+0.5%ā0.6%, nearing $110k Lower inflation reviving risk-on stance, dovish Fed forecast
Ethereum & Alts +4ā8%, ETH near $2,800 Institutional inflows, macro optimism, altcoin fair pricing momentum
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š Final Take
Crypto markets experienced a swift, bullish response as the soft CPI release reinforced expectations of a less hawkish Fedābuoying risk asset sentiment.
Equities rallied on dovish monetary outlooks and more constructive trade dynamics, while bond yields declined.
The CPI data emphasises the connection between macroeconomic indicators and both traditional and digital asset markets: as inflation cools, risk-on tradesāfrom stocks to cryptoāgain traction.