After experiencing an epic wash with a 15% amplitude in Bitcoin last week, I woke up this morning to be bombarded by news of the U.S. explosion - the Trump administration is clashing with California's immigration policy, the National Guard is directly involved in arrests, Musk's new party is labeled 'treasonous', and there are already bloodshed in street clashes! This scene is more thrilling than Trump's storming of the Capitol back in the day, with global funds rushing to avoid risk overnight, yet Bitcoin is playing 'playing dead oscillation' at 103,000-107,000 dollars. What is the main force selling?

1. Political black swan colliding with CPI nuclear bomb: Tonight's market is set for a sharp drop.

Civil unrest in the U.S. is not new, but this time there are three deadly variables:

Stagflation alarm is ringing: deVere CEO just issued a warning, U.S. core inflation expectations soared to 2.9%, unemployment rate is rising + growth stagnation. If the Fed's CPI data tonight exceeds expectations, it will directly confirm the 'stagflation' nightmare.

Regulatory undercurrents are surging: SEC Chairman Atkins suddenly shifts direction, promising to formulate clear cryptocurrency policies but requiring exchanges to hold 500 million dollars in capital. Binance's BNB chain has seen a surge of over 100 new projects, clearly betting on compliance dividends.

Major chip turnover: On-chain data shows that in the past 72 hours, 700,000 BTC were traded in the 100,000-105,000 dollar range, creating the highest turnover rate since the 2024 halving, the dog owner’s wash is nearing its end.

2. Breakdown of main force trading methods: Three scenarios after deep V wash.

The 'textbook-level wash' from the past week exposes the intentions of the main force:

Scenario 1 (40% probability): CPI data is neutral, the main force continues to oscillate to accumulate positions, high selling and low buying in the 103,000-107,000 dollar range, using time to exchange for space.

Scenario 2 (35% probability): Positive CPI surprise, violently breaking through the previous high of 108,000 dollars, using the chaos in the U.S. to hype the 'digital gold' narrative, shooting straight to 115,000 dollars.

Scenario 3 (25% probability): Negative data combined with political black swan, briefly spiking down to 98,000 dollars, but miners' production costs have risen to 95,000 dollars, a sudden drop would create a golden pit.

3. Life-and-death speed operation strategy: Bottom fishing and peak escaping depend on tonight.

Mid-line faith party: Blindly invest below 100,000 dollars, referencing Grayscale's GBTC cost price of 98,000 dollars. If it breaks below, it’s an opportunity to make money. On-chain data shows that only 5% of the circulating supply is below 100,000 dollars, so the probability of breaking through is very low.

Short-term contract party: 5 minutes before the CPI release, place breakout orders + stop-loss single insurance. If the data fluctuates more than 3% within 5 minutes after the release, immediately chase the trend and catch the second wave of inertia market.

Spot swing party: Focus on laying out compliant narrative targets - the SEC has approved 9 BTC ETFs managing 85 billion dollars, BlackRock’s tokenization of U.S. stocks is accelerating, and the RWA concept (such as MKR, ONDO) is expected to explode again.

#CPI数据 $BTC

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