Analysis of the Impact of US CPI Data on Bitcoin Price
Today is June 11, 2025, and the US is about to release the May CPI data (previous value 2.3%, expected 2.5%). Here are Bitcoin trend predictions for three scenarios:
1. Actual CPI is lower than expected (e.g., 2.3%-2.4%)
•Short-term impact: High probability of triggering a rapid rise in Bitcoin. The market will interpret this as a signal of cooling inflation, increasing bets on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, leading to a weaker dollar and increased attractiveness of risk assets.
◦Technical aspects: If it breaks through the recent resistance level (such as $94,000), it may quickly hit the $100,000 mark; if the data is significantly lower than expected, it may reproduce the short-term rebound after the April 2025 CPI data (when BTC rose by 8%).
◦Capital flow: Institutions may accelerate inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs (refer to the case of net inflows exceeding $5 million for 4 consecutive days after the April CPI release).
•Long-term logic: Continued cooling of inflation may consolidate BTC's safe-haven attribute as "digital gold", coupled with policy support such as the US "digital gold strategy", strengthening the long-term bullish trend.
2. Actual CPI meets expectations (2.5%)
•Short-term impact: The market has already digested expectations, and there may be a volatile market. It is necessary to judge in combination with core CPI data:
◦If the core CPI is still higher than 3%: The Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance, and Bitcoin may retest the lower edge of the $83,000-$94,000 range.
◦If the core CPI also falls back: Technical aspects may dominate the trend. If BTC stands firm at the $100,000 support, it may continue to consolidate at a high level waiting for new catalysts (such as ETH technical upgrades and institutional increase messages).
•Market sentiment: On-chain data shows that BTC continues to flow out of exchanges (current balance is 2.177 million, a weekly decrease of 10,000), long-term holders' chips are locked, and short-term selling pressure is limited.
3. Actual CPI is higher than expected (e.g., 2.6%+)
•Short-term impact: Bitcoin is likely to be under pressure and fall. Rising inflation will strengthen expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates or postponing interest rate cuts, and a stronger dollar will suppress risk assets.
◦Historical reference: After the CPI unexpectedly rose by 0.5% in February 2025, Bitcoin fell briefly by 3%, and panic caused a surge in long positions being liquidated (similar to the current fragile structure where long positions account for 67% of the entire network).
◦Key support: Need to pay attention to $83,000 (strong technical support in June 2025). If it falls below, it may trigger algorithm trading to sell off and further probe $75,000.
•Mid-term strategy: If inflation continues to rebound, BTC may enter a adjustment cycle, and funds may turn to gold with stronger anti-inflation attributes.
