ETH is performing a speed and passion show, but speedsters should be wary of sharp turns!
News: three fires and a knife
ETF expectations are heating up
The SEC may approve the ETH spot ETF (reference the 30% increase after the BTC ETF approval in May), giants like BlackRock have already submitted applications, and if approved, it will ignite institutional capital entry.
Grayscale 'selling pressure turning point'
Grayscale ETH Trust (ETHE) discount rate narrows to -8% (it reached -25% in March), indicating weakened selling pressure, but if the ETF approval is delayed, there remains a risk of liquidation.
Vitalik's assistance to the ecosystem
After the Dencun upgrade, gas fees decreased by 75%, and Layer 2 on-chain activity surged (Arbitrum daily trading volume increased by 40% month-on-month), which is beneficial in the long run, but the short-term gains have been partially exhausted.
Regulatory hidden dangers
The SEC chairman insists that 'ETH is a security', and the July hearing becomes a crucial turning point, bears may take the opportunity to drive the price down.
Technical analysis: the supercar is running low on fuel
Bollinger Bands raise alert: current price at 2786 is stuck at the upper band (2835), deviating more than 7% from the middle band at 2600, historical data over the past 3 years shows that more than 5% deviation has an 82% probability of a pullback within a week.
MACD hides risks: the golden cross is present, but the red bars are shrinking (67→53), the 4-hour chart shows a 'top divergence' (new price high, but MACD not a new high)
Volume is strange: when it surged to 2834, the trading volume fell by 15%, suspected to be the main force selling at high positions (an on-chain whale address net transferred out 120,000 ETH in 3 days)
Chasing highs now is like reaching out to catch flying knives, be patient and wait for the market to signal a downturn! Is the pullback a chance to pick up or the end of the trend? Pay attention to Big G, as tonight we will detail the hidden currents of on-chain funds!
