When macro warmth meets technical strength
The 110,000 Battle for Bitcoin
We have entered the countdown moment!
News Aspect:
Three Forces Fueling the Market
US-China trade easing + interest rate cut expectations
The US and China restarting tariff negotiations in London sends a positive signal, raising market risk appetite and accelerating funds into risk assets like Bitcoin. Coupled with a 97.4% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, if tonight's CPI data is mild (released at 20:30), it could further strengthen easing expectations, becoming fuel for bulls.
Regulatory shift towards 'warming up'
The new SEC chairman publicly criticizes the previous administration's high-pressure policies, supports 'self-custody rights', and accelerates (stablecoin legislation). The policy shifts from 'crackdown' to 'co-building', opening a trillion-dollar compliant channel for on-chain finance, which is a long-term benefit for the ecosystem.
Institutional funds are flowing in quietly
Despite a slight outflow of spot ETF funds, Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for 15 consecutive days, coupled with Circle (USDC issuer) listing on the NYSE this week (valuation at $7.2 billion), institutional allocation to crypto assets is shifting from tentative to strategic-level layouts.
Technical Aspect: Bulls in control but need a breakthrough key
MACD Golden Cross Accelerates: The 4-hour chart shows DIF (1263) strongly above DEA (1082), with the histogram bar at 361 continuously expanding, indicating strong upward momentum.
Bollinger Bands 'running at the top': Price closely hugging the upper band (currently reported at 109,568), short-term overbought signals are emerging, caution is needed for a pullback.
Key Resistance 'Liquidation Zone': 114,000 USD is a dense area of historical trapped positions (marked as 'liquidation' in the chart), heavy selling pressure exists here, a volume breakout is needed to open up space.
Bull Market Flag Aiming for 158K: Daily chart forms a bullish flag, if it stabilizes above 110,000, the technical target points to 158,000 USD.
Data Insight: Current short liquidations are intensifying (24-hour liquidations at $436 million), derivative open interest has soared to $77 billion, and the warming of long leverage indicates that volatility will amplify.
Operational Summary: Offensive and Defensive Strategy Before the Breakthrough
Key Watershed Points to Monitor:
Support: 109,580 (4-hour MA30) → 108,000 (bullish defense line)
Resistance: 110,718 (previous high) → 114,000 (breakout opens space)
Three Principles for Position Management:
✅ Holders: Reduce positions by 1/3 around 114,000, set a trailing stop at 108,000 for the remaining;
✅ Observers: Lightly chase long positions after breaking 110,718, increase positions on a pullback to 108,000;
❌ Do not chase highs: If CPI data is bearish + a spike and drop occurs, decisively take profits and observe.
News Catalysts Priority:
CPI > Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision > Circle Listing Performance, any positive news could trigger a breakout.
