From a technical, legal, and relationship perspective with Wall Street.
Below are the predictions for the Top 5 Layer 1s with the highest probability of being chosen as the foundation for official stablecoins in the U.S., ranked by probability:
1. Ethereum (ETH)
✅ Reason:
• Has the largest stablecoins in the world (USDT, USDC) operating on Ethereum.
• A strong DeFi, TradFi, and layer 2 ecosystem.
• BlackRock, Visa, JPMorgan… have all tested/deployed applications on Ethereum.
• Flexible legal infrastructure, capable of integrating KYC/AML through layer 2 or middleware like Chainlink CCIP, Fireblocks.
🔻 Drawback:
• High fees, requires layer 2 like Optimism or Arbitrum to support large volumes.
2. Avalanche (AVAX)
✅ Reason:
• Tested by many TradFi organizations (in partnership with Deloitte, Mastercard).
• Avalanche Subnets help build separate chains with legal control and high speed.
• Partnerships with Tether, Circle, and many organizations regarding CBDC/stablecoin.
⸻
3. Solana (SOL)
✅ Reason:
• Cheap, fast, high throughput – suitable for retail payments, similar to Visa.
• Circle has chosen Solana as the preferred platform for issuing USDC.
• Visa is using Solana for cross-border USDC payments.
🔻 Drawback:
• Has experienced multiple network outages → could raise concerns with the banking sector.
⸻
4. Aptos (APT)
✅ Reason:
• Backed by former engineers from Meta (Facebook) – Move language → optimized for payments.
• Supported by Binance Labs and many large VC funds.
• Currently being tested for high-speed payment systems.
5. Stellar (XLM)
✅ Reason:
• Built from the ground up to target cross-border payments.
• Partnerships with MoneyGram, Circle, and the Ukrainian government regarding stablecoins.
