This structural change has indeed reshaped the market ecology, but crises often hide new dimensions of opportunity. We can dismantle the current situation from the following dimensions and seek breakthroughs: Essential change: the market has shifted from a 'wealth transfer game' to a 'wealth division game'—after the incremental cake disappears, existing funds are redistributed under more precise rules.

2. Survival rules of a market dominated by quantitative strategies

The 'bloodsucking' mechanism of grid strategies

Typical parameters: ±1%/±0.5% ultra-narrow grid, completing buy and sell in 0.1 seconds.

Impact: Devours all short-term trend indicators, compressing price fluctuations within ±1σ of the Bollinger Bands.

Data verification: The daily average volatility of BTC has decreased from 5% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2023.

The 'moat' of institutional funds

Computing power advantage: Millisecond-level latency server clusters.

Data advantage: On-chain wallet monitoring + derivatives position analysis

Strategic advantages: Dynamic balance of multiple strategy combinations (arbitrage/market making/trend following)

The harsh reality: Subjective traders are like cavalry armed with cold weapons, fighting against mechanized units equipped with tanks.

3. The breakthrough point of subjective trading

Despite the deteriorating environment, structural opportunities still exist in:

1. The 'failure boundary' of quantitative strategies

Black swan events: Extreme events like exchange blowups (FFTX), regulatory raids (SEC lawsuits), etc., can instantly breach the risk thresholds of quantitative models.

Case: During the FTX crash in November 2022, BTC plummeted 25% in half an hour, forcing all grid strategies to close positions and becoming fuel for the trend.

Liquidity exhaustion zone: Low market cap altcoins have insufficient order book depth, and large trades can still create short-term slippage profits.

Strategy: Look for 'impulsive breakthroughs' in currencies with an average daily trading volume of $50 million.

2. Cross-market arbitrage opportunities

Derivatives and spot price differences: Hedging arbitrage when the funding rate of perpetual contracts deviates long-term from reasonable ranges.

Data: In Q3 2023, the annualized funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts exceeded 15% 17 times.

On-chain data arbitrage: Monitor whale address movements through NNansen/Santiment, and follow trades within a 15-30 minute window after large on-chain transfers.

3. Cognitive gap harvesting

Institutional blind spots: Cognitive biases brought by traditional financial funds entering the market (like applying stock valuation models to crypto assets).

Case: When MicroStrategy increased its BTC holdings, there was a 30% deviation between the 'digital gold discount rate' in its financial model and the actual market pricing.

Cultural barriers: Western institutions' delayed reactions to time differences in Eastern markets (like the Asia timezone trading dominated by Binance).

4. The trading philosophy of the new era

Shift from 'making money from trends' to 'making money from structure'

Give up the obsession with one-sided markets, focus on capturing 'market gaps' that quantitative strategies cannot cover.

For example: sniper trading in the 'vacuum zone' of grid strategies (like the 10-minute no-trade window after significant news releases).

Use time to exchange for space: 'slow trading'

Use 'weekly level breakthrough + monthly support' filtering conditions to avoid quantitative noise interference.

Reference example: After 6 months of oscillation between $1600 and $1800 for ETH in 2023, the final breakout increased by 240%.

Build an 'anti-quantitative' trading system

Introduce the unique chaotic factor of humanity:

Sentiment indicators (social media panic index)

Geopolitical variables (sudden changes in regulatory policies)

On-chain behavior patterns (sudden net inflow into exchanges)

5. Survival advice for ordinary traders

Lower expectations, adjust goals

Shift from pursuing 'hundredfold returns' to sustainable compounding of 'annualized 50%-100%'.

Reference data: Subjective traders who were still able to profit stably after 2020 had an average annualized return of about 63% (source: Crypto Fund Research).

Develop 'asymmetric advantages'

Specialize in niche fields:

On-chain data analysis (Glassnode expert-level interpretation)

Derivatives pricing model (volatility surface construction)

Cross-chain arbitrage (cross Layer 2 funding rate arbitrage)

Establish 'anti-fragile' positions

Allocate 70% of funds to low-risk strategies (like quantitative grids + arbitrage), and 30% to high-risk subjective trading.

Set dynamic stop-loss rules: close positions immediately if a single trade loses more than 2% of total funds.

This war between 'old money' and 'new money' is essentially a competition of production tools. When institutions are armed to the teeth with GPU clusters and machine learning, the only way for retail investors may be to redefine the boundaries of 'trading'—not competing with machines for speed, but trading with the greed and fear of humanity; not predicting the market, but becoming translators of market sentiment.#加密市场反弹 #比特币走势观察 $BTC $ETH