Trade relations between the world's two largest economies, the United States and China, have been a constant topic of discussion and concern throughout 2025. Far from being fully resolved, this "conflict" has morphed into a complex dance of negotiations, temporary truces, and renewed tensions, with consequences felt in people's pockets and on global economic stability.
A year of ups and downs in tariffs:
The year 2025 began with a certain optimism. In May, a "tariff truce" was reached in Geneva. This meant that both countries agreed to temporarily reduce some of the tariffs they had imposed on each other. The United States reduced its tariffs on approximately $120 billion worth of Chinese goods, while China did the same on US imports, especially agricultural products. This news was welcomed by global markets, which saw a respite and hope that trade tensions would ease.
However, this truce was not a definitive solution. The reductions were temporary, and many significant tariffs remained in place. For example, the United States still maintains tariffs on more than $350 billion worth of Chinese goods, and China on approximately $100 billion worth of US goods. Furthermore, despite the agreements, accusations emerged from both sides regarding non-compliance with some commitments, which quickly rekindled uncertainty.
Battles over technology and key resources:
Beyond tariffs, the 2025 trade "war" has focused heavily on technology and strategic resources. The United States has maintained and strengthened restrictions on China's access to advanced chipmaking equipment and software, seeking to curb China's technological advancement. For its part, China has responded by prioritizing its self-sufficiency in semiconductors through initiatives such as "Made in China 2025."
A recent sticking point has been China's control over exports of "rare earths," minerals essential for the manufacture of everything from smartphones to electric vehicles. Chinese restrictions in this area have raised concerns for global supply chains and have been seen as leverage in negotiations.
Consequences for ordinary citizens and the global economy:
How does all this affect us? First, tariffs and trade restrictions can translate into higher prices for consumers. If an imported product is subject to a tariff, that extra cost is likely passed on to the final buyer. This is especially true, for example, in electronics and some consumer goods.
For businesses, uncertainty is a major challenge. Unstable trade relations make long-term planning, investment, and supply chain management difficult. Some companies have opted to move part of their production out of China, seeking to diversify risks, which can be costly and complex.
At the global level, the conflict has contributed to a slowdown in global economic growth. Organizations such as the OECD have lowered their growth forecasts, noting that rising trade barriers and political uncertainty are affecting business confidence and international trade. In China, for example, exports to the United States have fallen significantly in some months of 2025.
In short, 2025 has been a year of ups and downs in the trade conflict between the United States and China. Although there have been moments of truce and negotiation, tensions persist, especially in key areas such as technology and resources. The consequences are tangible: they impact prices, generate uncertainty for businesses, and contribute to a more uncertain and challenging global economic landscape. The search for a lasting solution remains a priority, but the road ahead appears to be long and complex.