BlackRock's Massive ETH Purchases: A Life-and-Death Struggle Between Institutions and Retail Investors
The Truth Behind Institutional Bets
This week, BlackRock has been aggressively buying Ethereum, purchasing 27,200 ETH in a single day, which is no small feat—equivalent to burning $30 million every hour. They are betting that the ETH spot ETF will definitely be approved, after all, the Bitcoin ETF raised $40 billion last year as a cautionary tale. Even more audacious, 92% of BlackRock's own BUIDL fund is staked on Ethereum, clearly putting their life savings on the line for ETH.
$2800 Lifeline
Currently, ETH is stuck in a tug-of-war between $2550 and $2800, a zone that is an automatic trading minefield for quantitative funds:
If it breaks above $2800, programmed trading will chase the price up wildly, directly triggering retail FOMO, just like what happened when Bitcoin broke $50,000 in 2024; but if there are three failed attempts to break through, a large number of stop-loss orders could trigger a chain reaction of selling, potentially breaking through strong support at $2400.
ETF Money-Making Bomb
Look at the power of the Bitcoin ETF: it raised $4 billion in its first week, driving BTC from $30,000 to $50,000. If the Ethereum ETF is approved, according to BlackRock's calculations, it could attract at least $20 billion—enough to push ETH from $2500 to $3600. But there’s a hidden danger: BlackRock's own cost for ETH holdings is as high as $3300, and this price surge might be to cut losses.
Deadly Double-Edged Sword
Don’t just look at the thief eating meat; consider what happens when the thief gets hit:
Federal Reserve Rate Hike Blade: If June's CPI exceeds expectations, ETH must be prepared for a potential 15% drop in a single day, still fresh in memory from the flash crash in May; The Dealer's Counterplay: Last week, BlackRock secretly sold 1,249 Bitcoins to buy ETH, a move reminiscent of the “deceptive tactics” used to harvest retail investors in 2024.
Retail Survival Guide
Break above $2800: Must meet two hard indicators—15-minute trading volume exceeding 12,000 ETH, and two consecutive 4-hour candlesticks closing above 10, any deficiency means a false breakout; Drop below $2550: Immediately cut positions, there might be a rebound near $2475, but don’t be greedy, use 3x leverage to go in and out quickly; Tonight's CPI Data: Must clear positions before 20:25, as last year some didn’t believe it and suffered an 80% loss in 5 minutes.
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