June 9, #看懂K线 2025 Market Analysis

The price of $BTC is oscillating around the range of $105,600-$106,000. Although it briefly surged to $106,500 last night before retreating, the logic of short liquidity hunting is highly consistent with market data.

During last night's surge, about $420 million in short positions were liquidated within the range of $106,039-$108,129 (Figure 1), and the price quickly retreated to around $105,600, indicating that the main players completed chip collection through "squeezing shorts - then pushing down" during the liquidity exhaustion phase. This aligns with the strategy of absorbing active buying, consistent with the typical methods of market makers hunting derivatives.

Currently, Binance perpetual contracts have accumulated about 4,000 BTC buy orders in the narrow range of $105,600-$105,800, with the main players creating a liquidity trap through dense orders, waiting for market sentiment to reverse before triggering a sell-off.

Currently, there is a buildup of $15.11 billion in short leveraged positions in the range of $105,600-$110,000. If the price briefly breaks above $106,500, it may trigger a short squeeze (targeting $115,000). However, the main players are more likely to create liquidity siphoning through "false breakouts," attracting latecomers to reverse harvest (Figure 2).

A true bull market requires continuous inflow of ETF funds, recovery of miner fee income, and other fundamental supports, whereas the current on-chain trading volume has dropped to the lowest since October 2023, lacking sustained upward momentum.

Resistance and Support Analysis

Resistance level: Today's high of $106,365 is a recent resistance level. If broken, it may test $110,000 or even higher.

Support level: Today's low of $105,112 is a recent support level. If broken, it may pull back to below $105,000, but technical indicators show a lower likelihood of bullish momentum.

Short-term Strategy: Mainly wait and see, making decisions after the price breaks above $106,365 or below $105,112.

Bulls: If the price breaks above $106,200 with volume, a light long position can be taken up to $107,300, with a stop loss at $105,800.

Bears: Build positions in batches on a rebound to $105,800-$106,000, targeting a drop to $103,500-$102,100, with a stop loss at $106,500.

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