On the eve of the fierce battle between bulls and bears at $BTC , these key levels must be monitored!
The current market is overall in a fluctuating downtrend channel. Although there have been attempts at short-term rebounds, the strength is insufficient, and the long-term outlook remains bearish. Short-term volatility has significantly decreased, with prices oscillating repeatedly in the range of 100305.1-107148.3, and the direction of choice is yet to be clarified. A breakout from this range will determine the subsequent trend direction—if it breaks upward, the pressure level may open up space for a rebound, while breaking down through the support level will accelerate the decline.
The technical aspect shows obvious weak characteristics:
Three consecutive bearish candles form a "black three soldiers" pattern, indicating bears still hold the initiative;
Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, with prices oscillating around the middle band, temporarily lacking directional guidance;
EMA moving averages are completely intertwined, with prices repeatedly interspersing above and below, a typical feature of a fluctuating market; the Alligator indicator shows three lines nearly parallel, with prices hovering in the boundary area;
MACD red bars continue to shrink, with the DIF and DEA lines about to cross below the zero axis, indicating a significant decline in bullish momentum; moving averages across all periods are highly intertwined, and the market is at a critical point of change.
Personal judgment: The current market is still in a weak consolidation phase, but the integer level of 107000 has formed an important resistance barrier. If subsequent rebounds cannot effectively break through this position (especially if the closing price does not stay above 107000), a bearish outlook should be maintained.
Key support levels to focus on below are the two major integer levels of 103000 and 100000, among which 100000 serves as a psychological barrier, and a breach may trigger technical selling. In terms of operations, it is recommended to strictly control positions, closely monitor the breakout situation in the 107000-100000 range, and avoid blindly chasing highs and cutting losses before the direction is clear.
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