What events and policies in the cryptocurrency market are worth paying attention to in the second half of 2025?

1. Policy Aspects

1. U.S. Policy:

Stablecoin Legislation: The Trump administration plans to complete the Stablecoin Accountability Act legislation before Congress recesses in August.

2. Continuous Adjustment of Regulatory Framework: The Trump administration clarifies the commodity nature of cryptocurrencies, granting CFTC regulatory authority over spot trading, resolving the dispute over regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC.

3. Strategic Reserve Impact: The U.S. will incorporate Bitcoin seized through law enforcement into the national strategic reserve and plans to increase holdings in mainstream cryptocurrencies.

4. EU Policy: The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) will fully take effect on December 30, 2024, and will continue to be implemented in various member states in the second half of 2025.

5. The remaining Federal Reserve meeting dates for 2025 are: June 17-18, July 29-30, September 16-17, October 28-29, December 9-10.

2. Market Trends

1. Continued Growth of Stablecoins

2. Accelerated Integration of Crypto and Artificial Intelligence

3. Turning Point for DeFi

4. Increased Investment in Bitcoin's Secondary Market

5. Acceleration of Real-World Asset Tokenization

3. Regulatory Aspects

- The U.S. has bills like the Genius Act and Stable Act affecting stablecoin regulation; the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has fully taken effect, and the regulatory framework will continue to be improved; countries like India are also reassessing cryptocurrency regulations.

4. Operational Strategies

1. Stay away from new coins and avoid junk altcoins. Data shows that almost 100% of new coins on Binance have failed, with around 80% experiencing declines of over 90%. Friends involved in contracts should choose coins that have declined more than 95% and have trading volume; otherwise, it's better to choose to short.

2. Only Bitcoin has not let anyone down; trade it. Currently, it has almost stabilized at $100,000; continue to buy on dips, aiming for over $150,000 within the year.

3. Ethereum's daily and four-hour charts are turning downward; the current daily support is around $2,250; buying on dips can be considered, with a target of $4,500 within the year.

In the short term, there are almost no favorable policies. I predict there will be one or two black swan events before September. At that time, it will be the best entry opportunity.