Current key features of the 1-hour K-line:

  1. Has turned into a 'pulling drawer' market.:
    Price has been oscillating between 105000 and 106500 for nearly a day, like a millstone, unable to go up or down. It tried to push up to 106500 twice this morning but got hammered down; there are buyers at 105500.

  2. Trading volume is becoming weaker.:
    Every time it pushes high or drops, the trading volume shrinks, indicating that large funds are on the sidelines; currently, it is mainly retail investors playing high sell low buy.

  3. Indicators are collectively asleep:

    • RSI is stuck around 56, fluctuating back and forth.

    • MACD's two lines are stuck together.

    • Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the tightest in nearly a week.

Revealing the bottom cards of both bulls and bears:

Bullish Defense Line:
Defending the 105500 level; falling below here may trigger programmatic selling.

Bearish Weapons:
Over a thousand BTC sell orders piled up at 105500, every time it pushes up to this point, it gets 'hammered down'.

News Catalysts:

U.S. Economic Data Pitfalls:
The core PCE price index will be announced at 20:30 tonight; if the data exceeds expectations, the dollar may rise, and BTC could be drained.

ETF Fund Flow:
Net outflow for three consecutive days, but BlackRock's IBIT unexpectedly attracted 30 million this morning, major institutions are also in a fierce struggle.

Accelerated Balance Sheet Reduction Hints:
The Fed will double the balance sheet reduction each month starting in May, tightening liquidity is a hidden danger for the crypto market.

Today's script simulation:

  1. Short-term:
    Continue to play 'sandwich cookies' in the 105500-106500 range; if it breaks 106200 with volume this afternoon, can chase short longs; if it breaks 104500, quickly stop loss.

  2. Mid-term:
    Watch closely at the moment the PCE data is released,Data exceeds expectations→ Likely to spike to 105500;Data is below expectations→ May drop directly below 104500.

  3. Hidden danger positions::
    If it consolidates for a long time until tonight, beware of the operator's 'door painting' tactic.

Brother Crow's operation tips for fans:

Spot Party: Lying flat waiting for direction; if it breaks 104500, can add positions in batches.

Contract Party: Short near 105200, Long at 105800

Radicals: Place long orders at 105800 in ambush.

Everyone must do: Reduce positions to below 50%!