If this position is not broken this week, there is still a chance for 108,000 USD!
This weekend's rebound saw Bitcoin directly hitting the middle line on the 4-hour chart, which is also an area where many were previously trapped. There will definitely be significant selling pressure in this area; is it easy to push higher in the short term? No!
This wave of increase hasn't even touched the previous high, technically forming a "lower high". In simple terms, the bulls are currently quite weak, and in the short term, it is highly likely to fluctuate between 100,000 and 107,000 USD. The current price is right at the top of this range, and personally, I suggest a bearish operation in the short term, targeting around 103,500 USD, which is the middle position of the range.
Although the price has rebounded, the spot premium has actually decreased. What does this indicate? In the futures market, the bulls are secretly increasing their positions while the bears are starting to close their positions. This clearly tells everyone: the upper pressure is not to be taken lightly! So if you really want to short, you need to wait for a clear signal—like when the price drops below 105,000 USD on a 15-minute to 1-hour level, and the rebound can't even reach 106,500 USD; that's when it would be safer to enter.
Technically, the 4-hour level has a downward flavor of "lower high + lower low", but to be honest, it's still too early to go bearish directly. I tend to believe that Bitcoin will oscillate repeatedly at lower levels rather than just plummet. After all, in the long run, the probability of BTC lingering above 100,000 USD is much greater than it suddenly collapsing into a "head and shoulders" pattern.
For those trapped in long positions, don't panic: as long as the price can break through the current resistance zone this week, there's still a chance to touch 108,000 USD. For those holding short positions, keep an eye out: as long as the price doesn't drop below the middle line, long-term bears shouldn't be too arrogant. But if it really holds below the middle line, the support at 103,000 USD may need to be tested again.
The market is currently a situation of mutual liquidation between bulls and bears; don't get too excited, keep a close eye on the key price levels, be cautious when necessary, and be greedy when appropriate!
