Key technical signals:
1. Short position liquidity concentration at $0.50:
- The liquidity map for Dogecoin trading shows a concentration of short positions worth $380 million around the $0.50 level, which forms a key barrier. If selling pressure weakens, closing these positions could lead to a bullish price spike, especially if the price breaks this level.
- Historically, similar accumulations have preceded strong upward movements for the currency, such as the 2021 surge that surpassed $0.76.
2. Support for the DOGE/BTC pair and sector signals:
- The DOGE/BTC pair is approaching a long-term support level resembling the pattern preceding the 2021 rally. "Alfractl" analysis shows that the dominant short positions enhance the likelihood of a price reversal upwards.
- Although the meme coin index has underperformed compared to major currencies (like Bitcoin), it has begun to recover with the total market capitalization surpassing 2021 levels. Current daily trading volume ($12 billion) and trader interest ($3.2 billion) remain modest, which may indicate room for growth if Bitcoin's rise continues.
3. Elliott wave structure and supporting indicators:
- The weekly chart for the DOGE/USDT pair shows that the price maintains a green support area (continuing since 2021), with a potential formation of the fifth ascending wave after the completion of the fourth corrective wave. A breakout above the $0.50 level is targeted if this pattern is confirmed.
- Supporting indicators:
- Moving averages (50 and 200 weeks) are below the current price, reinforcing support.
- The MACD indicator shows a return of buying strength, while the RSI is trading around 60 (neutral).
Forecasts and risks:
- Bullish scenario: A breakout above $0.25 (currently resistance) could push the price to $0.50 (+95%), and possibly to $0.64 according to Fibonacci extensions.
- Risks: A failed breakout could bring the price back to $0.20, especially if market enthusiasm declines or regulatory pressures emerge.
- Long-term forecasts are mixed: some analyses predict $0.34–0.52 by 2030, while other models indicate $1.39 under ideal conditions.#TradingStrategies💼💰